The same was said about them going down just a couple of years ago too.
If the Middle East goes into turmoil all bets are off.
The world has changed. There is so much oil available at low prices that even turmoil in the Middle East would not raise prices more than about 10%.
If there is turmoil in the Middle East, the countries with lots of oil would sell as much as possible at pretty much any price above the variable cost in the short term.