The issue with Rand Paul: as a Republican, I nod along with him for ten minutes. Then at the eleventh minute, he explains a kooky opinion on something else and I completely forget everything he said the first ten minutes.
I don’t think the polls are capturing his contingent in Nevada.
Most people around here who support Paul would never claim to be republicans. Therefore they would not answer or even consider answering a pollster who want to place them in that category.
They are off the political grid