Cruz has never expected to win NH - if he did, that would truly be the end of Trump. Cruz'z strategy is to win Iowa, outperform expectations in NH, come in 1st or 2nd in SC then dominate the SEC primary. If Cruz comes in as one of the top 3 in NH, he will get more momentum out of that than Trump will from winning.
New Hampshire is critical...
I love this. Because Cruz is leading in Iowa, Trump supporters talk all day about how Iowa means nothing. But because Trump is leading in NH, suddenly winning NH is critical. Actually, neither state is critical, but both have the potential to build momentum. Trump actually has the greater risk in NH. He is expected to win by a lot - if Rubio can make it close, even if Trump wins it will suck a lot of wind out of Trump's sails.
The fact is, Iowa is a beauty pageant for conceited corn farmers who feel it is their God-given birthright to somehow ‘brand’ the candidate of their choosing as the inevitable nominee and presumably, President.
New Hampshire in some ways suffers from the same egotistical mindset. The bottom line is “which state carries the most electoral votes?” So in that sense you are correct regarding the SEC primaries (and South Carolina).