Not a math guy Gator- and I don’t put much credence in the polls. Guess it means it could be Cruz 31 - Trump 19. Don’t know.
What I do read is that some insiders say that Cruz has the best organization in Iowa that some of these folks have ever seen-— so, I believe he dominates merely because he’s more organized.
Cruz is visiting every County in Iowa. Trump is everywhere else. With all of the effort that Cruz has put into Iowa, if he doesn’t win it, it will be bad for him.