Posted on 01/03/2016 8:53:05 PM PST by justlittleoleme
Most national polls show Republican frontrunner Donald Trump trailing likely Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton and faring worse than other GOP hopefuls against her.
That raises an obvious question: Could doubts about Trump's strength in a general election derail his bid for the Republican nomination, or would GOP caucus attendees and primary voters simply ignore poll numbers that suggest Trump would be a risky bet in November?
SNIP
But Quinnipiac University's Dec. 16-20 survey showed Trump's image with all registered voters at 33 percent favorable/59 percent unfavorable - dismal numbers, and the highest unfavorable rating of any GOP hopeful.
Trump trailed Clinton by 11 points, 49 percent to 38 percent, in the mid-December Fox News ballot test, while Cruz and Clinton were tied at 45 percent and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio held a 45 percent to 43 percent lead over Clinton. The Quinnipiac poll found Trump trailing Clinton 47 percent to 40 percent, while Cruz and Clinton were tied at 44 percent and Rubio trailed Clinton by a single point, 44 percent to 43 percent.
But not every survey showed Trump trailing Clinton so dramatically in hypothetical match ups. For example, a Dec. 17-21 CNN/ORC survey showed the two candidates separated by only two points (Clinton 49 percent, Trump 47 percent). Of course, Cruz held a 2-point lead over Clinton and Rubio a 3-point lead in that survey, seemingly confirming that Trump is a weaker nominee against Clinton than at least two other Republican hopefuls.
But even if additional surveys between now and the Iowa caucuses show Trump's relative weakness in the general election, it is not yet clear that GOP voters - and Trump voters - will care. Opinion about the importance of "electability" as an issue for voters has been divided over the years.
(Excerpt) Read more at 3.blogs.rollcall.com ...
And you have hard evidence of this being so, yes?
I don’t suppose you’ve considered that many “union” guys are now without jobs? Funny thing - I’ve always been a Republican - even when I was in a union (AFL-CIO / IAM) But everybody “knows” that ALL union people are Democrats, at least that is what you political geniuses are always wont to remind us poor ol’ “simple” folk.
I’ll wager your “calculus” fails to consider that Trump has broad appeal because people understand that, unlike politicians, he actually gets positive things done.
Americans appreciate honesty - well, at least the sincere ones do ... But then, you don’t fall into that category, do you?
Money talks - and BS walks ... Better find a good pair of walking shoes , you’ll need ‘em.
Trump has but one rule ... It’s called “I win, you lose.”
I really like that rule. Too bad most of our “electable” guys never learn how to play it!
I doubt any candidate has Virginia locked up. That state is trended Dem in the last two cycles, but is very much a battleground state. Virginia is essential in most Republican win scenarios, along with Florida and Ohio, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa and Nevada.
From your list, Pennsylvania and Michigan are what I consider Tier 2 states. They trend Democrat, but are winnable by Republicans in the right environment in a mini-landslide scenario along with Wisconsin, Minnesota and New Jersey. (With the later two being unlikely).
Illinois, New York and the People’s Socialist Republic of California are lost causes, along with Hawaii, DC, Delaware, Connecticut, Vermont, Rhode Island and Massachusetts. One of Maine’s CD is usually in far reach for the Republicans, but trends Democrat. The other CD and the state as a whole, is generally safe Democrat. Oregon and Washington are long reaches for the Republicans in a true landslide election.
The rest of the states are generally favorable to the Republicans: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.
North Carolina and Missouri would likely be the first the Democrats would pick off in a worst case scenario (Tier 2), followed by Tennessee, Georgia and one of the Nebraska CDs in a true nightmare landslide.
If I was a democrat, Iâd vote for Cruz in the poll in hopes the GOP nominates him instead of Trump.
No general election voting has been done yet. It won't be till November. It's just a poll, and GOP primary voters and caucus voters will determine the GOP candidate, not Democrats.
Regardless of the polls, I see no logical reason Cruz would pull more democrats than Trump
Independents. That's where it's at. And Cruz is doing better with independents.
Trump has very proactively reached out to blacks, hispanics, and women
The media have Trump calling Mexicans rapists. Mexicans make up most of the Latino vote. Don't see Trump getting the Latino vote over Hilary Clinton. Not even close.
New York is doable if Trump wins in a Reaganesque landslide. But if Trump wins this state, Hillary will likely be reduced to DC, California, Delaware, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Vermont and Rhode Island.
That would mean that Trump would also make Maine and Connecticut competitive. Illinois and the Upper Midwest/Rust Belt states would fall, too with that much of a swing along with Oregon and Washington.
I just don’t see New York as a tossup by any means. Trump may narrow the gap and lose by a respectable 8-10 points, but this state is so far gone to the looney left, it’s not even funny.
Yes - and what has Trump repeatedly told us about himself? That he likes to be “UNPREDICTABLE” ... The fact is that HC and the Dems are crapping their undies right now.
That the MSM and the establishment hacks are all almost apoplectic over the possibility of a Trump v Clinton match-up, that they keep telling Republicans how The Donald suffers from a lack of “electability” and how he can’t possibly win against Hitlery should be pegging the BS meters.
Gee, do you think that, if Trump were that bad off in his “electability” that the enemy would be telling us about it? No! They would be shouting from the roof tops that Republicans should nominate him, and how great a match up it will be! They fear Trump, and so much so that you can smell their fear.
Remember Sun Tzu’s fundamental premise, as stated in his classic - ‘The Art of War’ (and don’t think for a moment that Trump has not read this treaties) - “All war is deception!”
And what are the MSM if not deceivers?
I think you’d like to do a little “mirroring” too - and see the reflection of Cruz, no doubt. Nice try, but ... FAIL!
He doesn't think anyone in the GOP can take the nomination from him and I think he is right.
I also think there is a lot of material which is very incriminating against Hillary, which Trump has the wherewithal to get and no one else can.
Bill didn't have a wandering eye because he was satisfied at home. Just a hunch, but I think enough money just might pry loose some very interesting pictures off Hillary with someone else...
Or, another field ripe for a big surprise is Hillary's email. We already know her server was not very secure. Anyone want to bet that enough money will pry loose a big data dump from whoever gained access to her server?
There are a lot of skeletons in a lot of closets. Trump is wealthy enough tat a lot of people are going to be offering up some interesting keys to those closets.
Trump may not beat Hillary with the latino vote, but what GOP candidate would. The Lantino vote normally goes democrat. Trump will get a larger percent than any republican candidate has.
Trump may not beat Hillary with the latino vote, but what GOP candidate would. The Lantino vote normally goes democrat. Trump will get a larger percent than any republican candidate has.
Well said!
“Trump has the charisma of hungry crocodile.”
Uh-huh - and he’s going to eat Hitlery for lunch. But perhaps you and your fellow whiz-bang “experts” would like to be the dessert course?
Not when Bush is standing on his tippy toes.
editor-surveyor will be surveying his crow sandwich after Trump wins. He might want to take a seat over at DU at that time as well.
Funny. High profile celebrities NEVER lose general elections when they first jump into politics.
Yeah?
GREAT!
GOP are elephants ...
GOPe are Rhinos ...
Dems are Jackasses ...
Trump is a Lion!
Got anything else? :)
-— GOP are elephants ...
GOPe are Rhinos ...
Dems are Jackasses ...
Trump is a Lion -—
No. That would make him a jackass RINO since he donated to both for 20 years and has been on both sides of every issue.
If he donated to “do business” then he’s just another corrupt billionaire.
If it was meaningless chump change, why did he do it?
Thank you in advance for your non-sequiters, red herrings and genetic fallacies.
Chuckle!
A minute ago she was a crocodile according to you. Until she got eaten by the lion that is.o
Chuckle!
A minute ago he was a crocodile according to you. Until he got eaten by the lion that is.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.