Do we have any idea just exactly is going on and how bad this really is?
What's going on? The military/industrial complex has decided to do something to jack the oil prices back up, get weapons of war flowing again and keep people distracted. That's what's going on.
How bad is it? Just the usual. The press will be giddy at the prospect of all the latest carnage, politicians will increase global temperatures by 2 degF, the weapons suppliers will be gearing up to replace the hundreds of millions of dollars of weapons destroyed in the battles and heaven and hell will be packed with fresh souls.
How's that?