Later states are difficult to predict based on polls. There are many people that are still not paying much attention and floating in the wind with Trump who seems to have the wind at his back.
Trump, while a 2nd or 3rd showing in IOWA wouldn’t be a disaster, he will draw some media and GOPE and Progressive HA HA! That ridicule will likely sap some strength from him and tighten up the later races, should he get an early string of ‘not placing first’ then his campaign is in jeopardy of collapsing.
New Hampshire February 9th is important, but South Carolina February 20th is the firewall. If that gets knocked down, the barbarians over run the Trump campaign and he’s toast coming March 1st Super Tuesday.
Conventional Wisdom says Trump will not come in first in IOWA. It’s just the nature of a caucus. Trump needs to place good, and follow up with a resounding win with New Hampshire, then South Carolina. When that happens, all hell breaks loose and Trump has a historic Super Tuesday all but signing the deal for his Presidency.
Pray for Trump. Keep him going with his unconventional campaign methods and keep telling it like it is.
Although I like Cruz, I just don’t see him getting the number of Democrat and Independent votes in the general election that Trump will. Anyway, it’s going to get really interesting in the next two months. I look for a desperate GOPe to rally around one candidate (Rubio) and force the other establishment candidates to drop out. I have my popcorn ready, let the games begin!
I think that YUGE enthusiastic crowds everywhere trumps anything that the rivals can offer.