[itsahoot]

The second choice numbers are important because they provide a snapshot of where the support of drop-out and fading candidates would go.

But as Amntn pointed out and you ignored........

The problem with your second choice theory is that many of the Trump/Cruz votes overlap.

Trump is my first choice and Cruz my second. For me to vote for Cruz, Trump would have to drop out and that isn't going to happen.

[mconley22]

I did not ignore anything. Obviously, not every supporter of candidates who dropout or fade in the polls will become Cruz supporters, but what the numbers show is that more people list Cruz as their second choice as Trump. Maybe you are ignoring the fact that Trump is the second choice of many Cruz supporters, including me.

Trump is the most unconventional candidate in the race and IMO, those who are open to supporting him most likely have already made that decision. Trump is closer to his ceiling than Cruz is, although Cruz's ceiling may not be high enough to overtake Trump.