ULA sells the low-end Atlas V for about $165 million. The 401 (no solids) puts 9797 kg into a 28 degree inclination LEO. That works out to be about $7600 per pound (not "$10K"). The Falcon 9 costs $61.2 M and can put 13,150 kg into the same orbit. That works out to about $2116 lb. Yes, less cost -- by about a factor of 3.5, not almost 10. I agree that's an accomplishment, as I said in my original post.
If he can refurbish these boosters at a reasonable cost then the cost/lb. will drop even further.
Perhaps. Perhaps not. It all depends on; 1) accounting for the loss of performance by making the first stage recoverable; 2) the cost of retrieval, refurbishment and preparation for relaunch; 3) the life cycle costs of a reusable first stage; 4) the reliability of that reused stage, including any additional launch insurance costs for a less reliable reused stage. None of these factors are known (or even forseeable) now -- get back to me when he has an operational system.
Musk has talked in the past about a figure of $500/lb. or even lower.
I'm sure he has said this -- he famous for saying incredibly silly things.
http://www.nasa.gov/centers/marshall/news/background/facts/astp.html_prt.htm
Today, it costs $10,000 to put a pound of payload in Earth orbit. NASAâs goal is to reduce the cost of getting to space to hundreds of dollars per pound within 25 years and tens of dollars per pound within 40 years.
http://www.polaris.iastate.edu/EveningStar/Unit7/unit7_sub2.htm
By current day space prices it costs about $10,000 for a pound of material to reach LEO (or $22,000 per kg).
https://books.google.com/books?id=M1s2bfYlPQcC&pg=PA59&lpg=PA59&dq=cost+per+pound+to+reach+orbit&source=bl&ots=uriwIE5YaB&sig=kFH9-GdyobG9liWOUFDdGowyhkE&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjYivCaifHJAhVHzWMKHWZBAzw4FBDoAQgtMAM#v=onepage&q=cost%20per%20pound%20to%20reach%20orbit&f=false
Launch costs currently range from $3,000 to $12,000 per pound to reach low Earth orbit (LEO), depending on payload weight and the launch system employed.
Launching communications satellites in geosynchronous transfer orbit costs between $11,000 to $20,000 per pound.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_Heavy
At an appearance in May 2004 before the United States Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, Elon Musk testified, “Long term plans call for development of a heavy lift product and even a super-heavy, if there is customer demand. We expect that each size increase would result in a meaningful decrease in cost per pound to orbit. ... Ultimately, I believe $500 per pound or less is very achievable.”[41] This $500 per pound goal stated by Musk in 2011 is 35 percent of the cost of the lowest-cost-per-pound LEO-capable launch system in a circa-2000 study, referenced by spaceref.com in 2001, the Zenit, a medium-lift launch vehicle that can carry 14,000 kilograms (30,000 lb) into LEO.[42]
As of March 2013, Falcon Heavy launch prices are below $1,000 per pound ($2,200/kg) to low-Earth orbit when the launch vehicle is transporting its maximum delivered cargo weight.[43] The published prices for Falcon Heavy launches have moved some from year to year, with announced prices for the various versions of Falcon Heavy priced at US$80-125 million in 2011,[14] US$83-128 million in 2012,[15] US$77.1-135 million in 2013,[44] and US$85 million for up to 6,400 kg to GTO (with no published price for heavier GTO or any LEO payload) in 2014.[45] Launch contracts typically reflect launch prices at the time the contract is signed.
By late 2013, SpaceX prices for space launch were already the lowest in the industry.[49] If SpaceX is able to successfully complete development on its SpaceX reusable rocket technology and return booster stages to the launch pad for reuseâenabling even lower launch pricesâa new economically-driven Space Age could result.[48][50]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9
In 2004, Elon Musk stated, “long term plans call for development of a heavy lift product and even a super-heavy, if there is customer demand. [...] Ultimately, I believe $500 per pound ($1100/kg) [of payload delivered to orbit] or less is very achievable.”[102] At its 2013 launch price and at full LEO payload capacity, the Falcon 9 v1.1 cost $1,864 per pound ($4,109/kg).[103]
http://www.airspacemag.com/space/is-spacex-changing-the-rocket-equation-132285884/?no-ist
Is SpaceX Changing the Rocket Equation?
All very impressive. But what really sets SpaceX apart, and has made it a magnet for controversy, are its prices: As advertised on the companyâs Web site, a Falcon 9 launch costs an average of $57 million, which works out to less than $2,500 per pound to orbit. Thatâs significantly less than what other U.S. launch companies typically charge, and even the manufacturer of Chinaâs low-cost Long March rocket (which the U.S. has banned importing) says it cannot beat SpaceXâs pricing. By 2014, the companyâs next rocket, the Falcon Heavy, aims to lower the cost to $1,000 per pound. And Musk insists thatâs just the beginning. âOur performance will increase and our prices will decline over time,â he writes on SpaceXâs Web site, âas is the case with every other technology.â
Thatâs a little overstated, says Stern. Yes, rockets are expensive largely âbecause the system allows it.â But in todayâs economy, ULAâs military customers are calling for prices to come down. âI know that they have an incentive to reduce their cost,â Stern says, âbut itâs at the margin.â In other words, ULAâs cost-saving efforts are limited by the high overhead associated with traditional ways of building and launching rockets.
(I love this part right here in the story.)
Significantly, the Merlin enginesâlike roughly 80 percent of the components for Falcon and Dragon, including even the flight computersâare made in-house. Thatâs something SpaceX didnât originally set out to do, but was driven to by suppliersâ high prices. Mueller recalls asking a vendor for an estimate on a particular engine valve. âThey came back [requesting] like a year and a half in development and hundreds of thousands of dollars. Just way out of whack. And weâre like, âNo, we need it by this summer, for much, much less money.â They go, âGood luck with that,â and kind of smirked and left.â Muellerâs people made the valve themselves, and by summer they had qualified it for use with cryogenic propellants.
âThat vendor, they iced us for a couple of months,â Mueller says, âand then they called us back: âHey, weâre willing to do that valve. You guys want to talk about it?â And weâre like, âNo, weâre done.â He goes, âWhat do you mean youâre done?â âWe qualified it. Weâre done.â And there was just silence at the end of the line. They were in shock.â That scenario has been repeated to the point where, Mueller says, âwe passionately avoid space vendors.â