Out of Gas: Turkey Is Losing Its Battle With Russia

Turkey relies on Russia for $20 billion of natural gas every year. If that flow is even slightly altered, even for a single day Turkey will grind to a halt. That natural gas engines Turkey's electric grid.

Gas is next. Russia will start pulling it. They have already cancelled work on the underwater gas pipeline which, together with the nuclear electric plants, would eventually make Turkey more energy independent.

Russia will get away with everything. And despite pressure that Turkey is trying to apply the real pressure will be placed by Russia on Turkey. No one is willing to step forward and help Turkey. If this continues, Russia will destroy them.

Natural gas is the big economic lever that Putin has used in Ukraine, and with which threatened the Baltic countries and Eastern Europe.

He has not pulled the trigger on this weapon against Turkey yet, but it is the most effective during the Winter.

Turkey is already scrambling to lay in new supplies from Azerbaijan and the Caspian Basin, as well as sending their military into the Kurdish Region of Iraq, from which they are receiving oil and gas. It was a big incident with the Baghdad Government recently.

They can not meet all their needs by truck, if the pipelines get shut off.

So far, the diversified Turkish economy has still been growing, while the hydrocarbon-dependent Russian economy has been contracting.

Although it would hurt the Russians a lot to cut off Turkish gas, the Russians are famous for enduring suffering. For Turkey however, sudden contraction would be wrenching, as their whole current political environment has been shaped by the long economic boom they have enjoyed under Erdogan. Politically, Erdogan would suffer more at home than Putin.

“Question - Is the Turkish army of sufficient strength and independence to carry out this palace revolution, or will there be widespread chaos much like we now see in Syria, and to a lesser degree, in Yemen and Libya?”

The current government has forced the entire secular officer staff into retirement. Their purpose was to prevent the army taking over and restoring a secular government. I believe the government has succeeded in their goal.

I believe it was the abandonment of religious government and the adoption of the western model that propelled Turkey as far as it has gotten. They will now slide back to anarchy and poverty.

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