Posted on 12/13/2015 5:33:04 AM PST by GonzoII
Trump could shuck his third wife and marry an Evangelical. That type of personal example might prove he’s one of them.
I don’t think it is fraudulent with three straight polls showing the same thing. However I do believe this lead will change hands between the two many times and they will remain the front runners,
Personally I would be happy with either of them and ideally would like both on the ticket in no particular order.
There was an article on this pollster at the same time this poll was emerging. She was written up to be quite on the mark, in the story, and she described her method as a mix of old and new technology, also as harder to do today than it use to be, but that if you hire her she will do the best she can given the changing technology and the mobility of voters.
She has been so spot on that she is revered up to now, and reportedly other polls often tend to deny her findings, but she, in the end, is spot on.
They give only two examples of that, but suffice it to say it was a puff piece on the pollster, leading up to the release of the poll, lest you want to argue with it.
If only it were not so universally known that the Register hate, hate, hates Donald Trump, the results would be more acceptable to *sundance, at The Last Refuge.
The poll may wake up the Trump support in Iowa, because regardless of the results, it did read that over 60% are still open to voting for another candidate. That was across the board among all candidate supporters. Iowa remains VOLITILE according to this poll.
Unlike Cruz supporters who have been screaming all night in 10 different postings about the Register poll and how Trump is finished, Trump supporters understand the gap has closed. I believe LS stated last week that the Trump lead is probably about 4-5 points. That may be, or we could be looking at a tie or a slight lead for Cruz. There’s a +/- 4.5 MOE so any or all of the scenarios could be true. Trump has been consistent at 25-30% support since August, so I’m pretty confident his support is pretty locked in. We’ve been through this drill on the other side with Carson, now Cruz, and even Jeb was leading back in August. Amazing that voters in Iowa will take their marching orders from Steve King, or Steve Deace or Bob Vander Plaats on a weekly basis. And conservatives make fun of liberals for being told what to do by their “leaders”.
FOX reporting a statistical tie in Iowa.
The Des Moines Register poll was criticized by some for including too many folks who were not traditional “likely” voters but who self-identified as probable caucus participants. trump himself had rather nasty things to say about the Des Moines Register poll. So now you are criticizing this poll for excluding the less likely voters.
I'm calling bullshit unless you can produce more than one example of this.....I"m also calling bullshit on your use of the word screaming, which is an infantile attempt to hide the fact you have a weak argument.
Hardly an implosion. Fully expected at this point. Cruz campaign put a lot of effort in this, secured signifIcant endorsements (for Iowa) and he should be where he is. note this poll is 2% difference which is probably where it is. Swings of 20% in a month, though a cause for great hope, are probably not accurate. Also, Cruz may be peaking too early as we saw with Carson. Iowa will probably be very close. The following states, not so much.
Seltzer knows Iowa. I would tend to believe the Des Moines Register poll over the others. As I said previously, she’s the only one that saw Ernst handily defeating that RAT Bradley in the 2014 Senate race.
That’s not to say that minds won’t change between now and caucus day.
my thoughts....
momentum is in essence hype and hoopla propagated by the media
trump has shown himself able to make positive adjustments to the H&H. thus Iowa and NH will not have the ability to create momentum if Trump doesn’t want them to
the media cannot completely comprehend this fact and so far is unable to make adjustments
Less caffeine this morning, Edmund.
you are partially correct, but you are also significantly NOT correct as well. There is momentum that is hype, and there is momentum that is, well, MOMENTUM.
Here the Cruz campaign said something was happening, many people scoffed, and now WHOA WHAT DO YA KNOW - three polls in a short time validate what they said. That sir is not hype.
And while you are right Trump has dominated the media and prevented momentum from anyone else to date, the idea that as more and more people pay attention that this will remain so is not something I’d bet the ranch on just yet. It may prove out, but to declare it definitively now is to place way the hell too much attention to the preseason exhibition game results.
....that all you got? I assume so.
GO CRUZ!
The Vander Plaats video interview at the top of that page is great too. He says Cruz has the opportunity not just to WIN Iowa but to DOMINATE Iowa. He says he feels voters will have an “easy choice” if Cruz debates Hellary and that he will win the general election. He also says Cruz is successfully straddling several “lanes” in the primaries, including the libertarian lane, GOP grassroots conservative wing and the evangelical pro-family lane. And he says unlike Huckabee and Santorum, Cruz has the money and organization to handle these surges in the polls and build on them.
Vander Plaats does say that Iowa is really down to Trump and Cruz, with Rubio being the one who has an outside chance.
You would be the first example I’d cite....
I’m more than willing to believe the Seltzer poll. I read an article on her methodology, and I believe it best picks up the new voters coming into the process because of trump and Dr. Carson. But ironically, some number of these voters are migrating right now to Sen. Cruz. I’d like to think that that’s because Sen. Cruz looks very good in a more careful assessment of who is the more consistent conservative.
Then STFU or cite examples.....(you can't because I've not done ANY of what you said...zip zero nada - you live in a fantasy world).
Lol...well played!
If you look at the timeline for the RCP average for Iowa what jumps right out at you is that Cruz is inheriting essentially all of the Carson votes as Carson falls in the Iowa polls. If Carson continues to fall and that trend continues then Cruz will look like a cinch winner in Iowa.
But a further Carson fall is hardly guaranteed. There will be a bottom. If so it could easily be close between Trump and Cruz on Feb 1.
Right now the Bottom and Top for Trump looks like it will stay in the range around 25%. He has been very consistently in that range. It seems to me that unless something dramatic happens (good or bad) that is where Trump will end up.
The “definite caucus voters” in Fox- (Cruz 32- Trump 25)— In line with last poll.
Tea Party = 48-24 Very Cons 42-23.
Noteworthy— go to each and every nat’l and state poll on Real Clear Politics, and notice that the “network poll” (CBS, CNN, etc) show Trump in front by a very significant number relative to the other telephone polls.
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