The big thing that seems to be forgotten is that we’re 2 months out from when the voting begins in Iowa. The other thing that keeps getting buried when talking about Iowa and New Hampshire is that there are mountains of votes left in far larger states and that, when put in perspective, Iowa and New Hampshire can be trimmed down to actual size. It doesn’t happen often, but it does happen.
I think Reagan did it, iirc. I’d have to check on that.
Bush won in the primary, Reagan took Iowa in the general