Posted on 12/08/2015 6:54:49 AM PST by Isara
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| Ted Cruz speaks during his presidential campaign rally at the Fort Worth Stockyards on Sept. 3, 2015. (Photo by Laura Buckman) |
In a Monmouth University poll released Monday, the Texas senator leads Trump 24 percent to 19 percent among likely caucus-goers. His support in the survey has spiked 14 percentage points since October.
Monmouth pollster Patrick Murray partly attributed Cruz's rise to a collapse in support for retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, whose numbers have dropped by 19 points since two months ago. Cruz has also been helped by the recent endorsement of U.S. Rep. Steve King of Iowa, which Murray said "certainly put a stamp on the Cruz surge in Iowa."
Cruz is also performing strongly among evangelical voters, who tend to make up roughly half of the Iowa GOP caucus electorate. The survey found Cruz beating Trump 30 percent to 18 percent among evangelical voters.
Besides Cruz and Trump, the only other candidates who registered double-digit support in the poll were U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida at 17 percent and Carson at 13 percent.
Campaigning Monday in South Carolina, Cruz called the survey "very encouraging."
"We’re seeing a continuation of the energy and momentum that has been gradually and steadily building in Iowa and South Carolina and New Hampshire and all across the country," Cruz told reporters after a town hall in Greenville. "From the beginning, the approach of this campaign was to build a campaign on a foundation of stone and not a foundation of sand, following the biblical principle of systematically unifying and bringing together conservatives, and we’re seeing that happening powerfully in the state of Iowa."
"We’ve got a long way to go, but it's certainly true that going up is better than going down," Cruz added.
Another survey released Monday showed Cruz rising in the Hawkeye State, but not all the way to first place. The CNN/ORC poll found Cruz (20 percent) still a distant second behind Trump (33 percent). Cruz's support in the poll was nonetheless up 12 points since August.
CNN explained the discrepancy between its survey and the Monmouth one by noting the news organization built its sample differently, asking Iowa adults "about their intention to participate in their caucus, interest in news about the caucuses, and past participation patterns to determine who would be a likely voter." The Monmouth survey primarily relied on registered voters in Iowa with a history of participating in primary elections at the state level, according to CNN.
The Monmouth poll was done by telephone Thursday through Sunday with 425 Iowa Republicans considered likely to participate in the Feb. 1 caucuses. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percent.
Ted Cruz: “From the beginning, the approach of this campaign was to build a campaign on a foundation of stone and not a foundation of sand, following the biblical principle of systematically unifying and bringing together conservatives, and we’re seeing that happening powerfully in the state of Iowa.”
Telephone poll......bogus results. Trump, trumps in Iowa, big time (CNN poll released yesterday).
Gotta add on that: Trump for POTUS & Cruz for VP. Trump eight years & Cruz eight years!!! Go TRUMP & CRUZ!!!
The trend is your friend.
This is good for Cruz and I support him but the key difference between this poll showing him leading and the one also released yesterday showing him in 2nd is the sample filter. Cruz is winning in Iowa with the voters who have in the past been very reliable long time Republicans and caucus goers. The difference in the polls appears to stem from new caucus goers who are very excited when they are included rather than excluded as the Monmouth poll does then Trump jumps out to a 13 point lead. Even when it was Ben Carson in 2nd and sometimes first this was the case. The key question is will Trump get these new GOP caucus voters to the polls. If they do he wins if not Cruz will very likely win an upset. I’d be happy with either one at the head of the ticket. I think regardless Cruz will have a very strong showing Iowa. That said I think it will be almost impossible for him or anyone else to win in New Hampshire. If Trump voters don’t show up in Iowa it would hurt him because it would cast doubt on his lead overall. I personally think they will show up ultimately and even though I love Cruz I think its much more important that we have the previous sleeping majority of disaffected and turned off voters going to the polls than staying at home.
Trump said today, Cruz is not his competition.
Like watching Secreteriat at Chrchill Downs. They are just coming into the home stretch...
Every poll that shows Cruz surging against Trump is bogus!!!..... (s)
Trump is right. Cruz cannot be his competition, because both candidates are working for the same thing, a renewed America. God bless ‘em both!
ps - FU, Hillary.
No, not necessarily, but you have to take into account is it an outlier, a trend, what’s the average of polls state-by-state, nationally, polling types, methodology and biases. Cruz is definitely trending up and this makes sense as more people are paying attention, Carson falls, and the other GOP candidates continue to trip over themselves to condemn Trump, and to a lesser degree, Cruz. However, Trump continues to lead, not only in the polls, but on the issues, too. Cruz may very well win Iowa with large Evangelical support, but that will not probably translate to the following states where Trump has large leads. Trump is driving the narrative and continues to suck the media oxygen out of the room not allowing other candidates to gain traction.
That is a good point. They are in competition for the nomination but not on the issues.
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Some guy on Cruz’s staff/campaign in S Carolina was on Brietbart News this morning touting this poll as Scripture that Cruz will be the nominee. Steven Bannon kept asking him why he thought so and the guy kept mentioning this ONE poll.
Isn’t Monmouth one of the outliers that said Carson was blowing away Trump in Iowa 2 months ago??
One can only hope and pray.
‘Isn’t Monmouth one of the outliers that said Carson was blowing away Trump in Iowa 2 months ago??’
Patrick Murphy, of Monmouth polling, has done this twice before. Once he concocted an outlier poll showing Carson surging past Trump in SC, and once he cobbled together an outlier showing Carson surging past Trump in IA. No other polls reflected these ‘surges,’ nor did they amount to a hill of beans.
But you can’t say Trump-hater Murphy doesn’t try.
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