I take it you don’t get out to the grocery store much... I believe my eyes, checking account and grocery bill more than I believe this cats numbers and postulations. There may indeed be deflation but it is not happening at the grocery store.
I have been around for Inflation, Deflation and Stagflation. Now how about some just plain ordinary every day...”Flation?”
Actually, I think it’s starting. Yesterday, cooking oil (canola) was $4.98/gallon. It’s been $7+/- for years. There was no big screaming SPECIAL tag, either. My local grocery sent out their weekly flier and all portioned meat is close to the usual full muscle cut per pound...maybe a 15% price drop for beef, as well as pork. Eggs came down again a few weeks ago. If you shop carefully, some stores have bacon at just over $2.00/lb and butter at well under $2.50/lb.
Then for non-food items: I use lavender oil in the kitchen for burns and here and there for aroma/air freshening. For a couple of years, the best price was around $10 for 10ml (1/2 oz). I have Prime, so yesterday, I was searching Amazon for some lavender oil and supplier after supplier was offering 4 full oz, no fillers, good quality with good reviews for just under $14+free shipping. This was strange, because candles scented with lavender are hard to find, the larger sizes are more expensive, most manufacturers are selling blends.
We are listing our property this spring and I have been watching prices in my area fall. The realtor comes this week to start the process and we have decided to start off asking a lower price, because the down-sized properties we have been looking at have all dropped, some considerably.
And of course, everyone is aware of the drops in silver and gold.
Now, these are wildly different assets and commodities,but I’m starting to see price drops scattered everywhere. I should add that I have expected deflation for years. Oh, and the other side of the equation: we are self-employed, hand-manufactured goods and personal services, totally discretionary. Business has been terrible to flat for the past seven years and we are starting to see an uptick. We think this means people have more disposable income. YMMV
By, the way: for shippable food items, like coffee, for an example, if you have Amazon Prime, you can save a lot ordering online. The coffee I like, Sumatra, is either way up (50%) or not available in my local stores. I can get it online, 2 days free ship, good quality for $3 (20%) or so below the best store price. Besides the streaming TV shows, I think I’ve already saved the entire cost of my membership within a couple of months. Caveat: I took advantage of their anniversary offer and added in $5 in Amazon points, so I paid $60 or so for membership.I’m at the point of always checking Amazon before I buy anything.
Straight-line extrapolations don’t go forever, in either direction. And items do disappear when the prices exceed what the market will bear. So, waiting for more and more price cuts may take a long time, during which other items may increase. It’s fluid.
Amen! Not only are prices going up but packages are getting smaller!