We Have Our Final Six (after last night's debate)

The Weekly Standard ^ | OCT 28, 2015 | JONATHAN V. LAST

[xzins]

The three winners of the night were pretty obvious: Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, and Donald Trump.

Rubio ended Jeb Bush’s campaign with the kind of body shot that buckles your knees. That’s on Bush, who never should have come after Rubio in that spot for a host of strategic and tactical reasons. But what should scare Hillary Clinton is how effortless Rubio is even with throwaway lines, like “I’m against anything that’s bad for my mother.” Most people have no idea how fearsome raw political talent can be. Clinton does know because she’s seen it up close. She sleeps next to it for a contractually-obligated 18 nights per year.

Cruz was tough and canny—no surprise there. He went the full-Gingrich in his assault on CNBC’s ridiculous moderators. He did a better job explaining Social Security reform than Chris Christie, even (which is no mean feat). And managed to look downright personable compared with John Harwood, whose incompetence was matched only by his unpleasantness. If you’re a conservative voter looking for someone who is going to fight for your values, Cruz must have looked awfully attractive.

Then there was Trump. Over the last few weeks, Trump has gotten better on the stump. Well, don’t look now, but he’s getting better at debates, too. Trump was reasonably disciplined. He kept his agro to a medium-high level. And his situational awareness is getting keener, too. Note how he backed John Kasich into such a bad corner on Lehmann Brothers that he protested, “I was a banker, and I was proud of it!” When that’s your answer, you’ve lost the exchange. Even at a Republican debate.

And Trump had a hammer close: “Our country doesn’t win anymore. We used to win. We don’t anymore.” I remain convinced that this line (along with his hardliner on immigration) is the core of Trump’s appeal. But he didn’t just restate this theme in his closing argument. He used it to: (1) beat up CNBC; and (2) argue that his man-handling of these media twits is an example of what he’ll do as president. It was brilliant political theater.

Those were your winners. You also saw tonight several campaigns which are over, even if the candidates don’t know it yet. Kasich was less likable than Rand Paul. Rand Paul was mostly invisible, and petulant when he was visible. Mike Huckabee wasn’t visible enough, except when he was doing his populist defense of Medicare and Social Security. But the effectiveness of this spot was diminished by Cruz’s excellent response, which is what people are apt to remember. There just isn’t enough space for him to make an impact by dint of personality in a field with a bunch of other strong and attractive personalities. And as for Bush? Jeb’s dead, baby. Jeb’s dead.

That leaves us with Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina, and Ben Carson, who, by the way, is actually leading the field in some polls.

Christie was as impressive tonight as he could be, given his position. He had a great opening. His interjection on regulating fantasy football was tremendous. The “Even in New Jersey what you’re doing is called rude” line to Harwood just killed. If the establishment had jumped on Christie early, instead of being scared off by the GW bridge scandal and going for Bush . . . well, this race would probably be different. But they didn’t. That said, we’ll keep Christie in our final grouping because he’s so talented that he’s always going to have a puncher’s chance.

Fiorina had a solid debate, but wasn’t the run-away winner she’d been in the first two debates. If her numbers couldn’t hold when she was the class of the field, I doubt they’ll move much when she’s merely on the high-side of the average. It looks more and more like Fiorina isn’t running to win the nomination.

And what to do about Carson? Gentle Ben was fine—great in some moments; pedestrian in others. I don’t think many people in the media fully grasp the passion for Carson, but that doesn’t make it any less real. And if you look at the history of Iowa, and Carson’s numbers now, it’s not hard to imagine him doing very well there.

So there’s your final six: Trump, Carson, Rubio, Cruz, and maybe—just maybe—Fiorina and Christie

[Talisker]

9YearLurker: What's notable is how Trump scores without rehearsal. He does it with an alpha-male, tell-it-to-you-directly, good enough vibe about it. If it's inauthentic, it's so well done that it's still gold.

jimbo807: That is why Trump is winning.

Ted likes to hear himself orate. I like what he says, but so does he. A LOT.

Carson gets done and I say, "Huh?".

Rubio needs theme music and people holding up lighters.

Carly needs to go away. Now.

Christie needs to lose weight.

Great comments.

[9YearLurker]

And my point is that that’s not necessarily the way to look at it. If he brings out enough voters in a key state or two that’s the same as delivering a home state anyway.

I suspect Trump would try to “balance” his ticket with someone like Suzana Martinez, which to me would make him look too much like the typical pandering pol, but we’ll see—maybe.

[9YearLurker]

Too true re: Cruz—maybe eight years as the more or less silent partner to Trump, as his veep, would cure him of it.