Excellent...
Now put on the hat of a Commodities broker as well as supplier info..
Supply and demand, it seems there should be stasis of the 2 but volatility remains....
Hmmmmm
Why do you think that? History shows it never happens very long.
Part of the problem is the lag between price changes and real production change. When the price drops significantly, new contracts for drilling rigs drops, but we won't see the drop in active drilling rigs finally drop until months after the price drop.
It has always been a volatile market. So a short price drop is ignored, business as usual. It takes an extended drop before the industry really reacts. In that time, more supply has come on line.
Once the well is brought into production, most of the cost is already spent. The cost to keep in in production is far, far less than the cost to get started. So if your well is one month old and prices fall, you have to keep it running anyways to pay off the accumulated bills.