| This thread has been locked, it will not receive new replies. |
| Locked on 10/18/2015 3:49:46 PM PDT by Admin Moderator, reason: |
Posted on 10/17/2015 6:01:43 PM PDT by Amntn
I’m Going To Say Something Nice about Jeb Bush….
Posted on October 17, 2015 by sundance
…. at least he is a real bona fide candidate. Regardless of how fraught with inherent deception Jeb Bush’s intent and purposes for seeking the GOP nomination, he is in fact a real candidate; with, factual action taking place on the ground to support his efforts.
Like Donald Trump, Jeb Bush is structurally in the race -with infrastructure- trying to win it. The other multiple candidates, not so much; actually, not even close.
Spurred by our discovery of the internal Republican National Committee efforts to engage with State Republican party apparatus, vis-á-vis “ongoing rule changes“, numerous boots on the ground have begun reporting the absence of candidate activity amid various (Pre-March 16th) primary states.
Multiple calls to local and state Republican party leadership originally intended to find out when they were going to make decisions on proportional rules for delegate distribution, have accidentally identified another aspect (it’s Déjà vu to the pre-primary spring ’14 all over again).
Similar to the early political indicators we identified in the period of October ’13 through May ’14, which eventually led to the discovery of the larger GOPe road map, there are events which -if they were transpiring- would indicate who has the best opportunity for success in the 2016 primary race.
Put another way, if a candidate was genuine, there are specific actions needed now in order for that candidate to be reasonably considered ‘making-an-earnest-effort’. Absent of those actions, the motivation is transparently somewhat “less than” making a real bid to attain the GOP nomination.
A great example is Virginia (again hat-tip to boots on ground) where any candidate must gather 5,000 signatures from ‘registered republican voters’, and include 200 signatures from each of the 11 congressional districts (also registered republican voters), along with the application fees, to be considered a candidate. All of this must be accomplished by December.
Only two candidates, Jeb Bush and Donald Trump, have efforts underway to qualify there. No Ted Cruz, no Marco Rubio, no Carly Fiorina, not even Jim Gilmore (former gov) is making a visible effort. You make up your own mind what that implies, but the reality doesn’t change.
Same thing, same non-players, going on in Illinois, Wisconsin and Florida.
FIRST FOUR – Iowa and New Hampshire is less predictive of campaign intent because all candidates HAVE TO make an impression to keep up appearances. However, even there, the real action is only within Team Trump and Team Jeb with Carson, Cruz and Fiorina doing the next closest effort.
South Carolina is easy-peasy because all it takes is a registration form, filing fee and viola’ name on ballot. Nevada (caucus) state is more similar to Iowa, and again similar activity.
However, once you go beyond those February race states, that’s when things really shrink. Calling around the various states election offices and republican party offices you find there’s little to no effort except for Jeb Bush and Donald Trump campaigns.
Understanding the GOPe road map, and understanding the RNC/GOPe have -for the past two years- planned for Jeb –and only Jeb– you begin to get a picture of why Donald Trump focuses almost exclusively on Jeb Bush. Quite simply, and factually, no-one else is extending their efforts beyond those February States.
Initially a supporter of someone other than Jeb or Trump might say: “well the campaign is getting around to it later”; except the “later” part is rapidly running out of time.
Taking the Thanksgiving holidays into account, there’s only about five or six full weeks left to do the ground work and get your nominee on the ballot in multiple states.
Winning in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina or Nevada doesn’t mean squat if the candidate isn’t eligible for North Carolina, Ohio, Illinois, Virginia, Texas etc. and few candidates, well, actually only Trump and Bush, have active efforts underway in every state to meet the qualification efforts for ballot placement.
That’s good to hear, but I wish Jeb’s numbers were single digit.
If Cruz is the only other candidate to get in Jeb wins Virginia just as planned. The Bush teams steps back for their leader while the opposition splits the remaining votes
I’m surprised that he is signing off on S306 which will put homeschool in the Fed Verbiage of “private school” thus allowing them to reach on in...http://www.voicesempower.com/manipulation-of-legislation-it-is-time-for-senator-ted-cruz-to-publicly-take-a-stand-against-esea/
Jeb Bush’s problem is not money or organization its Jeb Bush. Nobody wants him. Nobody is going to vote for him. He has all the charm and charisma of a dead dog,
Bushbot. Bush will not get the nomination, does not deserve the nomination, and woukd be a sure path to defeat in the general election.
I’ve found Sundances analysis to be extraordinarily insightful and sharp. Over and over, his analysis has led to predictions which are proven right. Well worth the time reading what he has to say.
Cruz doesn't really surprise me, but Carson, given his fairly significant momentum, does surprise me. He has some potential to go far here, but it looks as if he could collapse before the race really even begins.
[Can this be true???]
I don’t take stock in any article that is written by a pseudo author.
Sundance has been very informative and reliable.
I didn’t write this I only posted it. Did you even read it?
This is saying that Cruz doesn’t have much of a ground game anywhere but Iowa.
Only Trump and Bush have ground games beyond the early states.
It makes sense if you look at the states where delegates are divided by percentage points and those where winner takes all. Iirc the cutoff date is march 1.
In the winner take all states the GOPee have always played another candidate against an opponents letting their candidate take all.
Since Carson and Trump have been friends fir years and Cruz also appears to be in agreement i suspect they will beat the good old boys at their own game. Might even run as a team
That is my hope!
One of the talking heads said if Trump and Carson would announce they were running as a team it would be over. My thought is the three announce with Cruz as AG. Even the local democrats here would vote for that.
Remember Trumps early boast that he would win the African,Hispanic vote
Well Carson would bring in one and Cruz the other.
Have you looked up Carson’s Florida house? Same zip code as Trump. From google it appears to be on a golf course. Hmmmm?
[Sundance has been very informative and reliable.]
Thank you for telling me that.
I have found this website to have very accurate information and interpretation on issues. I remember in 2012 there was an issue with Newt Gingrich in Virginia due to a compliance problem of some kind and it is very important to do what Trump and Bush are doing. I would keep a sharp eye on what Cruz and Carson do in this regard. Carson is taking time off to promote a book.
The data is true; the interpretation is suspect. While the author seems to be referring to many states, his example of Virginia is a unique case. It’s so costly and Byzantine that in 2012, Romney was the only qualified candidate in Virginia. (I forget... maybe Paul was also). It’s an open primary so Bush and Trump have enormous advantages since they appeal, respectively, to liberals and independents. And it’s nearly winner-take-all; no-one outside the top two gets anything.
So is Cruz ceding? Just Virginia, if he is. On the same day, Texas, which is three to four times larger is also having a nearly winner-take-all primary. Not splitting the not-Bush vote with Trump in Virginia is possibly a very crafty tactic... although I’m a little disappointed.
Would you be disappointed to have Cruz as AG and appointed to SCOTUS
I’ve said all along. 4 years. 8 years. With Cruz is too short. Want his service for life as a Supreme Court Justice.
bump
What’s the date of that announcement? I couldn’t find one at the source.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.