In terms of the welfare state, we have been on the same trajectory for the last 90 years. The prescription drug program and Obamacare are just the latest expansions of unsustainable programs that will bankrupt us. There is very little that can change the trajectory other than economic collapse. Americans want all the benefits a European-style welfare state can offer, but do no want to pay for it. We are in decline no matter what metric you want to use.
I don't think you and I disagree as much one might think. We both know that things will change. I understand you to be saying that current trends cannot be expected to change enough to save us. You may be right. That is a possibility. And, unfortunately, you and I may never know. ;-).
Things will change for the worse. Unlike climate change, which is beyond our control, there are hard data re our economic condition that are as predictive as the laws of gravity. The longer we wait to take action, the more painful the solutions will be. The interests of the political and corporate elites are far different than those of the people. We are on a collision course that will lead to social chaos and economic disaster. IMO we are nearer to that result than you may believe. We may indeed live to see it.
I can't disagree with that.
The prescription drug program and Obamacare are just the latest expansions of unsustainable programs that will bankrupt us. There is very little that can change the trajectory other than economic collapse. Americans want all the benefits a European-style welfare state can offer, but do no want to pay for it. We are in decline no matter what metric you want to use.
There is clearly a problem in this area, isn't there? I absolutely agree with you that Americans are very human in that they like governmental goodies and they don't want to pay for them.
I think that many people have learned how to rationalize their own participation. Typically, they consider themselves "entitled" to the type of benefits that they receive and believe that our budgetary problems are being caused by the types of benefits that they don't receive. In other words, their benefits are legitimate, but the benefits that they don't receive are an abuse of the system. They tend to feel the same way about taxes. They often support the types of taxes that they don't pay and oppose the types of taxes that they perceive are being imposed upon them (directly or indirectly). These are vey human reactions.
However, I think we need to be careful about projections in this area. If a system cannot work, then that reality will force a change. And, I'm not sure that that change necessarily requires a total "economic collapse." I see a lot of other alternatives. One obvious alternative is that a huge debt can be reduced by a reduction in the value of the money used to pay it. Another alternative involves reductions in real benefits relative to the size of the economic system, and still another alternative involves increases in taxes used to pay for goodies. All of these alternatives are difficult, but all of them might be less difficult than a total economic collapse.
And, that leads us to your statement that "[t]hings will change for the worse." That is a possible outcome. If you and I disagree, it is probably on this point. I'm not at all sure that a negative outcome is inevitable. I think that there are just too many unknowns to allow us to be certain that the future will be worse than the present.
But, then,I tend to be an optimist. Optimism has nearly always worked for me so I don't want to discard it and I'm probably too old to change much anyway. ;-)