I saw signs of trouble earlier this year when the Alberta government in the heartland of Canadian conservatism switched from Conservative to NDP. In the US, that would be like Utah electing Bernie Sanders as governor.
That was more of a combination of events than Albertans abandoning their small-c conservatism. Basically, it came down to the PC party not acting as a conservative party for the last 15 years and a split between the CINO’s and real conservatives, which allowed the NDP to walk up the middle.
Albertans still voted for a conservative party 53%.