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“The only alternative evaluated by the SSA that actually solves the problem is an eventual 50% increase in payroll taxes.”

We will have to restore manufacturing in the USA, which will create jobs. The Chinese won’t keep sending us goodies in exchange for green and black paper.

We will have to break the zoning and other impediments to more housing industry jobs. Housing has become crushingly expensive for millions. Land should be residential by default (unless used commercially or industrially or owned by an adjacent industrial or commercial landowner), with 8,000 feet of residential space per acre as a minimum (under federal economic growth law).

We will have to get millions of deadbeats off the federal teat and into the work force.

My 6% estimate assumes prompt action such as 1% less increase annually for six years.

My 6% estimate assumes prompt action such as 1% less increase annually for six years.

I posted an example of a 1% reduction per year, indefinitely, in my previous example. Doing it for only 6 years would be much less than that.

It's actually not hard to figure that out: a 6% reduction wouldn't make up the estimated 23% difference between revenue and expenses in 2033.

But, I also wanted to point out: that earlier one was a 1% reduction in the COLA, and it could result in a negative COLA. This alternative puts a floor of 0% on the COLA:

Starting December 2015, reduce the annual COLA by 1 percentage point, but not to less than zero. In cases where the unreduced COLA is less than 1 percentage point, do not carry over the unused reduction into future years.

I'll also toss this one in:

Reduce individual Social Security benefits if modified adjusted gross income, or MAGI (AGI less taxable Social Security benefits plus nontaxable interest income) is above $60,000 for single taxpayers or $120,000 for taxpayers filing jointly. This provision is effective for individuals newly eligible for benefits in 2020 or later. The percentage reduction increases linearly up to 50 percent for single/joint filers with MAGI of $180,000/$360,000 or above. Index the MAGI thresholds for years after 2020, based on changes in the SSA average wage index.

This is effectively what Christie has proposed: gradually reducing benefits for people that have income from other sources (i.e. that actually planned for their retirement). As you can see, it has almost no effect. It's a political sound bite, but not much else.