Posted on 10/11/2015 5:08:52 PM PDT by Kaslin
Last week, the House Republicans were plunged into disarray when House Majority Leader Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), the presumptive favorite, withdrew from the speakership race. It seemed he was already facing a troubled road to succeed out-going Speaker John Boehner, given that the House Freedom Caucus–a 40-member block–was going to vote for Rep. Daniel Webster (R-FL) for the top spot; McCarthy had reportedly refused to give in to their demands. That, coupled with the possibility of relying on Democrats for his victory, along with his comments about the House Select Committee on Benghazi–he said it was sinking Hillary’s poll numbers–crippled any notion that he could move the House forward in any direction. Democrats seized on his remarks proposing an amendment and a privileged resolution to dissolve the committee. Both failed on party-line votes. Yet, the damage was done, and McCarthy exited the stage.The possibility that Republicans might have to solicit Democratic votes (just awful optics) for the next speaker remains open, as Rep. Charlie Dent (R-PA) alluded to in the midst of McCarthy's withdrawal.
Guy mentioned the rather depressing scenario House Republicans are in with McCarthy’s withdrawal. There’s a very short list of candidates who want the top spot given the headaches that comes with it. Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-SC) can’t move because he needs to restore the credibility that McCarthy torpedoed with his awful remarks. Rep. Paul Ryan is happy where he is, but is getting pressure from Boehner to run for speaker. Ryan spoke with his former running mate Mitt Romney as well, though the latter did not pressure him into running. The worst scenario that could possibly come out of this, as Guy noted, was an interim speaker, which would be disastrous for fundraising and would set a horrible narrative: Republicans cannot govern … at all.
Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post said that the conservative activist base's threat to the establishment is real, and the sooner the latter realizes this the better:
Given all of that, it never made any sense for McCarthy to move up to speaker -- or, for that matter, Steve Scalise of Louisiana to move up to majority leader. In a party whose base is sending a clear message that they are sick and tired of the status quo, the idea of simply moving each member of leadership up a slot was insane.
And the argument for McCarthy -- when weighed against the anger and passion against the establishment coursing through the base -- was feeble. The members like him! He texts them on their birthdays! He's been to their districts! Dick Cheney endorsed him! None of that was a match for the fundamental belief -- within the base and among Republican politicians trying to channel that base -- that McCarthy was part of the problem, not the solution. He was doomed to have an ending like this -- no matter the extenuating personal circumstances that might have also influenced the lack of support for him.
[…]
This threat to the establishment from the conservative activist base is real. The sooner the establishment realizes it -- and the resignation of Boehner/demise of McCarthy should help them get it -- the better chance they will have to combat it. But, I also think that the possibility exists that the establishment doesn't have the ability to put down this revolution. Which is an amazing thing to ponder as the country gets ready to elect a new president in 13 months time.
Adding to the argument side for McCarthy came from Cillizza’s colleague Dave Weigel, who wrote that the “chaos” in the House GOP is a good thing since the gentleman from California wasn’t a good Majority Whip–and that states of anarchy have led to good things for House Republicans in the past:
McCarthy, a "young gun" Republican organizer who helped the party recruit much of its winning 2010 class, was less a manager and more a Doctor Frankenstein. McCarthy presided over -- sorry, whipped -- a failed extension of the Patriot Act, a failed extension of the payroll tax cut, a failed attempt to raise the debt limit, a failure to pass the GOP's preferred "fiscal cliff" rescue, a failed attempt to pass the farm bill. The default drama of McCarthy's whip tenure was that Republicans would prep a vote, someone would realize that they were short, and crisis would ensue until someone wrote up a compromise that would allow Democrats to bail out a rump of the GOP.
[…]
What will be the long-term impact of McCarthy's faceplant? If previous leadership crises tell us anything, the GOP might be better off. The 1998 impeachment debacle that took down both Newt Gingrich (Ga.) and would-be-speaker Bob Livingston (La.) produced Dennis Hastert (Ill.), who colorlessly led the House GOP through three election wins and created a separation from the past that helped George W. Bush rebrand the party. His closest competitor: Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), whose 2002 ascension to minority leader made some Democrats wonder if the party would seem hopelessly, un-electably left-wing.
The GOP is in a better position now than the Democrats or Republicans were in those scenarios. Its next speaker will inherit a majority that can sustain dozens of losses and is protected from those losses by gerrymandering in key states. And its voters, as pollsters will tell you, don't pay a ton of attention to who the speaker is. There is life after chaos -- though, seriously, it's better to figure out how to raise the debt limit first.
Of course, I’m not sold on the gerrymandering argument, and I don’t agree with the politics and governing styles of Reid and Pelosi. But will this little chaos bring us something better after McCarthy? Is there hope? From McCarthy’s past leadership record, it seems as if Republicans dodged a bullet, but I’ll let you debate that point. I’m just putting it out there.
They dodged a probable 'blackmail' incident provoked by the White Mosque thru the services of NSA.
No sense trading one hedonistic buffoon for another who can't keep his fly up !
“...The 1998 impeachment debacle that took down Newt Gingrich...”
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History re-write.
Considering the alledged accusations , can we afford to risk another embarassment ?
I think not !
Now Bohner can come back and do all the dirty work before they get a new speaker. He can make a deal with the Democrats to go around the Conservative group demanding real change.
And don’t forget Newt’s replacement . . . Livingstone. He resigned over the affair.
That’s what I’m thinkin’.
Yeah. But the war is hardly over.
Also , considering both McCarthy and Ellmers vote in favor of continueing the Export/ Import Bank, and being known as being one of " Pelosi's 42 "
Republican voters who voted with Pelosi and the Democrats
..their true colors were already shown.
We need more than a Boehner replacement , and less betrayal by the party elite.
Agreed. The battle was won but the war is just beginning. Freedom group must hold out for restructuring of the entire house. Then and only then will the true war begin
Dodged one bullet, yes. Then Lined up to get the sucking chest wound that is paul ryan.
Are you allowed to say “bullet” in America?
Sounds like micro-aggression to me.
I suggest you crawl right back under your rock from which you crawled out from
If a new guy comes in as speaker, he will probably be forced to do what Obama wants on the Budget for fear of a veto. Whoever gets the job will be ruined by making a deal with Obama. The media will blame the Republicans not Obama if a Budget is not passed. The new guy should just shut the government down and do what is right. The new guy will be forced to pick the political decision over what is right.
At minimum the next Speaker should not be a lackey of The Cheap Labor Express.
The next Speaker should at least be someone who believes in the rule of law.
That leaves out McCarthy, Ryan and a bunch of others.
Without Leadership the RINOs will just openly ally with the Dems as happened on the Ex-IM recall petition.
Probably what Townhall would prefer... anything to spend more money.
Marsha Marsha!
Is this passive~aggressive nite kaslin?
Your gop is lining up for paul ryan. Thems is the facts. Only thing that might prevent him from getting the job is that he doesnt seem to be all that enthused to do it. After all, he would have to give up being chief pork distributor over at ways and means.
Dont worry though. If its not ryan I’m sure the gop will find someone just as bad. Someone who will make boehner look like “the good old days.” Thats just what the gop does.
More Republicans Join Speakership Race as Paul Ryan’s Nascent Campaign Falls Apart on the Runway
Good article (dated today, Oct. 11) - read the whole thing.
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