I'm guessing that when all is said and done, most of Carson's supporters will go to Trump or Cruz, while most of Fiorina's will (unfortunately) go to Jeb or Rubio.
I think you could very well be correct as to how the different supporters would split.
PMSNBC/Murdock’s WSJ didn’t poll New Hampshire much in this poll since Carson is down to 8% in the latest NH poll.