But I think if Carson were to leave today, 2/3 of his voters would go to Trump. If Cruz left, I think it would be the same---but Cruz won't leave because I'm convinced he and Trump have a deal, either Veep or Ag for Cruz.
The rest? Fiorina/Christie/Paul/etc. Trump probably gets half of them as soon as their person gets out. The other half? Hard to tell. In other words, I think you can make a pretty good case that if Carson goes, with Cruz's supporters, Trump is already over 50% GOP BEFORE even dipping into those who "have to be convinced."
Larry, great point on Cruz and Carson. I agree with you that those folks will consolidate with Trump.
But I still see a fascinating power summit that will need to take place among all of us as we’ll be divided 50-50 come next March.
Either the non-Trump GOP nominee will need to make peace with the Trump folks or Trump will have to make peace and win over the NRO crowd.