“Say you’re not predicting that Snarly is gonna melt the Trumpster down are ya? Fahgedaboudit.”
I don’t know how much staying power she has. I do think it’s a terrible mistake to write her off by comparing her to Bachmann or Cain, because she’s got good political sense (unlike Cain) and has a strong record of leadership (unlike Bachmann). She’s also got rank-and-file Republican (of all stripes) women fired up, which can’t be underestimated.
I think Trump’s base at this point is 15-20%, with the current surplus 10% or so coming from the usual tire kickers who always bounce around at this point in the primaries. I think Carly has enough broad appeal across the Republican spectrum to get herself to 30% at some point this fall, at which point Donald gets desperate, doubles down on his outlandishness, and completely marginalizes himself. What happens after that is anyone’s guess, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see someone like Rubio (his fervent hatred on FR notwithstanding) begin to peak at the right time and pick up a big win in one of the early states.
Fiorina has no broad appeal. She has destroyed every company she has managed. And she executed the horrible hp-compaq deal after the tech bubble had already burst. She was also a board member at TSMC for a couple of years, and she barely showed up at all for the meetings. She’s a terrible manager.
Jeb and Co. know this, so they’re propping her up, only to bring her down later. Same goes for Carson, policy-wise in terms of positions on amnesty, etc. in reality Carson and Fiorina are very close to Jeb. Rove knows that Trump is the only threat since he has unique positions. Once Trump is out, Rove will attack Fiorina for being a failure as a manager, and Carson for being inexperienced compared to Jeb and the MSM propaganda networks will eat it up.