Posted on 09/16/2015 7:10:46 AM PDT by VinL
Ted Cruz isnt topping the polls or dominating the conversation, but hes one of the winners of the past few months.
His odds of winning the nomination have increased more than anyone elses besides Donald Trump, and if you believe (reasonably enough) that Trump isnt built to last, more than anyone elses, period.
Lets review. There was always the danger of Cruz, who made his national reputation on the strength of a misbegotten government shutdown, seeming like too much of a bomb-thrower. That was before it began to look like the Republican Party is open to a candidate only slightly less disruptive than Auguste Vaillant, the 19th-century French anarchist who struck a blow against politics as usual by literally throwing a bomb into the French Chamber of Deputies in 1893 (the establishment wasnt amused it executed him).
Such is the disgust with the Republican leadership, that there is no longer such a thing as going too far. Cruz could burn John Boehner in effigy, and no one would bat an eye. Cruz could make a citizens arrest of Mitch McConnell on the Senate floor on grounds of gross crimes of omission against the constitutional republic, and the Luntz focus group would applaud his plucky initiative. In sum, theres nothing Cruz could do short of pissing in the Yankee Bean soup in the Senate dining room that would be too outlandish, and even then his most devoted fans might say, Its about damn time!
This must be liberating for Cruz, who has already called McConnell a liar and blamed Boehner and McConnell for not stopping the Iran nuclear deal and hes just getting started.
If the general environment fits Cruz nicely, the dynamic of the campaign is favorable to him, too. There are few things Cruz should welcome more than the ongoing war between Trump, the anti-establishment gorilla in the room who is a major obstacle in his path, and the foremost establishment candidate, Jeb Bush, whom Cruz needs to be as weak as possible. Cruz can stand by and hope both sides lose, which isnt a far-fetched bet.
While other campaigns have been flummoxed and discombobulated by the rise of Trump, Cruz hasnt. He has a simple political True North go where the base is. Once it became obvious Trump was catching on with the grass roots, Cruzs play was obvious: Start acting as if Ronald Reagans only failure was not to have handed down a 12th Commandment thou shalt not criticize Donald Trump.
Cruz can be very patient waiting for the mogul to come down to earth. The Texas senator has an ideological and geographical base that means he can play the long game.
Consider Iowa. Cruz is sitting in third place there, a comfortable place to be in the late-breaking state. He has captured the intense loyalty of a portion of the grass roots (evident in his consistently crowd-pleasing speeches) and lines up for the caucuses better than Trump does. Cruz is a preachers son who announced his campaign at Liberty University. He speaks forcefully on the social issues and is a down-the-line conservative, without a hint of a heterodoxy.
If he were to emerge and win Iowa, he would have a much stronger financial and institutional base to follow up his victory than the immediate past winners, Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee. Cruz has raised more hard money than anyone else, and has significant super PAC support. If he merely held his own until March 1, hed be in position to sop up delegates in the SEC states, including Texas.
On top of this, Cruz is very smart, disciplined and doesnt make unforced errors if he gets an opening, hell make the most of it.
Getting that opening will depend on Trump and Ben Carson fading (and someone else, like Carly Fiorina, not rising). But all Cruz needs is for the voters to become slightly, and only slightly, more desirous of political experience.
The Overton window has shifted enough that Cruz, in the Senate less than three years, almost all of it spent in political pyrotechnics, looks like the sober statesman. Compared to Donald Trump, hes practically Everett Dirksen. Compared to Carson, hes a career politician a veteran of the George W. Bush campaign and administration who ran for the U.S. Senate as soon as plausible, and apparently has no intention of leaving unless its for a promotion.
It once seemed that Scott Walker could best Cruz with his record of accomplishment, but so far Republican voters arent in an accomplishment mood. Its possible to imagine Cruzs team secretly thinking, What good fortune that our candidate has never governed anything, or seriously tried to pass major legislation.
Of course, Cruzs potential may never be realized. He should, in theory, be the elected officeholder next in line to pick up support from the outsiders, but he is very different stylistically from them. While Trump always lets it fly extemporaneously, Cruz is extremely deliberate. While Trump and Carson ooze sincerity, Cruz can let his calculation show he sincerely supported trade promotion authority, until the politics shifted, and then he sincerely opposed it. While Trump and Carson are refreshingly different as communicators, Cruz is practiced and stentorian. He could make ordering a ham-and-cheese sandwich sound like a speech. (Trump is also, in many respects, a raging moderate, whose support ranges much more widely across the party than Cruzs.)
However shrewdly Cruz is positioned in the primary, his candidacy might be a heavy lift in a general election. But theres time to worry about that later. Cruz certainly has a more intuitive theory of the case than Jeb Bush: to wit, you have to win the primary to have a chance to win the general.
Unlike Trump and Carson, Cruz doesnt need the usual political rules to be utterly suspended to win the nomination. He just needs them to be different, and to get some lucky bounces along the way. That looks likelier than it did six months ago.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/09/ted-cruz-sitting-pretty-213151#ixzz3luUtNY6A
Rock solid in the polls in the face of the media attempt to erase him.
From your voice to God’s ear!!!
He is building his base in every state.
How does Cruz do it all?
He’s a regular Energizer Bunny in the Senate...running around to all his important committee duties.
TED CRUZs CURRENT SENATE COMMITTEES (SOURCE: Cruz web site):
Subcommittee on Emerging Threats and Capabilities
Subcommittee on Seapower
Subcommittee on Strategic Forces
Committee on Commerce, Science, & Transportation
Subcommittee on Space, Science, and Competitiveness, Chairman
Subcommittee on Aviation Operations, Safety, and Security
Subcommittee on Communications, Technology, Innovation, and the Internet
Subcommittee on Consumer Protection, Product Safety, Insurance, and Data Security
Subcommittee on Oceans, Atmosphere, Fisheries, and Coast Guard
Subcommittee on Oversight, Agency Action, Federal Rights and Federal Courts, Chairman
Subcommittee on The Constitution
Subcommittee on Immigration and the National Interest
Joint Economic Committee
Committee on Rules & Administration
He’s running the 800.
I hope it’s true that his maverick ways can not go too far with voters, because I REALLY want him to shut down the government over Planned Parenthood.
Cruz bump!
This article has some crap subtext. For example...
“In sum, theres nothing Cruz could do short of pissing in the Yankee Bean soup in the Senate dining room that would be too outlandish...”
...implying that the actions Cruz does take ARE outlandish and not reasonable responses to gubbermint run amok.
I love Cruz as a candidate. Yes he is playing the long game, waiting to grab any and all supporters from Trump to Bush.
If Politico is touting Cruz (who is my favored candidate), then they are deathly afraid that Trump cannot be stopped, IMO.
Politico is in no way a conservative source.
But the idiotic Lowry couldn’t help himself....’Cruz misbegotten government shutdown” - only inside DC does anyone believe that chit. Did Lowry not see the results of the 2014 mid terms...the mid terms idiots like Lowry assured us that Cruz had lost?
but this writer is conservative, more or less.....
Cruz support of TPA and increased H-1B visas will come back to bite him. He also supports legalization of the lawbreakers—no deportation.
The problem with Cruz & today’s electorate (on a national scale) is people want celebrity. They want charisma. They don’t want dry & wonkish. Policies and ideology matter little anymore.
You need to update your spiel. Cruz is now against the TPP/TPA bill.
(hypocritical whining about flip flopping incoming in 5...4...3...)
Why are these two men smiling? Maybe they have a plan.
And I bet your candidate is a flip flopping recent former supporter of Hilary Clinton. Also, outside immigration, I bet your candidate is has basically the same views as Rudy Gulliani? Am I right?
Go ahead and support your Trojan Horse of a Candidate.
CRUZ 2016
You can’t use reason, logic, perspective and analogy to argue with an idiot like that guy........
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