She can’t be fired.
If she refuses the court can hold her in contempt and order her arrested. This is the most likely scenario.
Additionally the Attorney General can indict her under several statutes involving performance of public duties. The KY AG is a Democrat running for Governor. He does that and he hands the election to Republica Matt Bevins. It’ll make the McConnell win over Grimes look like a nail-biter.
She can also be impeached by the state legislature. See the AG indicts scenario above for the likely outcome.
The KY Dems really want this to go away. She’s turning into a Robin Hood style folk hero in KY for the “bitter clinger” crowd most likely to determine the statewide elections coming up this Fall.
And, as you note in your other scenarios, that makes her an instant martyr and public hero.
It would be even more interesting if the people ordered to arrest her declined to comply.
This points out both the actual weakness of the Court, and the reality of what they do. The Court has no real inherent power to compel enforcement of its decrees. It only has the power of its ability to get other branches to cooperate. This power evaporates like the dew on the grass on a sunny day, if the other branches really don't like the decision.
What we really have is the Court as a branch of the Elites, giving the orders that the other branches don't dare to, with the other branches cooperating in the game by saying "We really don't want to, but IT'S THE LAW OF THE LAND now".