Believe me, I have no love for Krugman, but he has a couple of points here. First - he’s right about the Invisible Primary, where candidates have to run around chasing Big Money...and Big Money always has strings. “Immigration Reform” is, obviously, the best example. Rush has been perplexed for almost a decade trying to figure out why Republicans, nearly every one, campaign hard right on immigration, but immediately go soft on border security once they get into office - and the answer is, of course, big money. Scott Walker is proving it best this campaign season in that he had more positions on aspects of the issue than there are candidates (including 3 positions on Anchor Babies in one week).
And it make sense for Social Security. Like it or not, it is a very popular program. I’ve challenged its structure by saying we should means test benefits and at least half of the respondents ON THIS SITE, perhaps the most conservative on the web, attacked me, saying that they earned the money, and they want it back. When I mentioned that they had already spent the money, twice over now, by voting (collectively) for politicians that raided the surpluses and ANY MONEY they get today is taken directly from my children and my grandchildren, it made no difference to them - they wanted what they perceived as their money and if this country was destroyed in the process, so be it. Again, these are FReepers talking, and you can see a few here. So couple them with Dems, and there simply is NO WAY that SS is going to change form in any significant way, short of full economic collapse or foreign invasion. So that’s not happening.
As to “stealing from the Trust Fund” - while technically correct, it really doesn’t matter, as SS would be broke on the same day, whether or not we raided the trust fund. To explain that in simplified terms, if SS had a $100B surplus in 1997, for example, and Congress spent that money, then Congress got to claim they “balanced the budget”, thanks to that $100B. But SS is still owed that money and has first rights to it from general revenues, which is where we are now, as SS is now running deficits. So if SS revenues are $150B short in 2014, SS gets to claim that amount from general revenues, and they are now getting it back. Of course since no one wants to cut spending anywhere else, that $150B is simply tacked on to the deficit, which is part of the reason it’s so high now. In effect, the $100B back in 1997 didn’t show up in our deficit (and debt) until 2014, but it did eventually show up and SS wasn’t hurt by it.
By its Authorization Law, SS has the right to reclaim every dollar it ‘lent’ to general revenues, and it is doing so now (I think it was about 5 years ago when revenue no longer matched expenditures). But there is a limit, based on current law, which is that SS cannot claim back anything beyond what they ‘lent’ to general revenue. That’s the day SS goes broke. If SS had held on to the money over those years, it still would go broke that day - I think in year 2033. At that point, ACCORDING TO CURRENT LAW, SS would only be authorized to pay out exactly what it brings in, which will be about 78% of obligations in 2033. So with no change in the Authorization Law, there will be an automatic and immediate 22% cut in payouts whenever that day comes in 2033. Of course the law will change and that cut will never become real.
As to what to do about it, there certainly are some options. To break even without cutting benefits to retirees, SS will need about 28% more revenue starting in 2033 and probably going up from there in later years. Here are some options:
1) Make sure the people receiving benefits are legally entitled to them (i.e., not illegals, and not dead - lots of dead people still get SS as their relatives never get around to informing SS about them).
2) End transfers out of the (paper) SS Trust Fund. Right now huge amounts of money wind up in the hands of the “Disability Fund”, which is due to go broke next year. Happens on a regular basis...the “Disability Fund” goes broke, and Congress takes money from the (paper) SS Trust Fund and bails them out. What it does is reduce the SS fund’s claim on general revenues and pushes the doomsday clock forward...maybe from 2033 to 2031. Instead tell the Disability Program to get rid of its 35% fraud that we all know is going on - that will more than cover their needs.
3) Revenue enhancements (1): Get rid of the earnings cap (presently $118,500). A dirty little secret as to why you don’t hear Dems proposing this is that they get A TON of votes from liberals in the Northeast and California who would get clobbered by this, as they are high-income liberals...for them it means a new 6.2% income tax (with no deductions allowed) on every penny over $118,500. Republicans, especially outside of liberal areas, would feel it much less.
4) Revenue Enhancements (2): Increase the withholding rate from 6.2%. Obviously not very popular with anyone, but if it increased to about 8%, that would end the most of the trouble for SS.
5) TRUMP’S IDEA: Grow the economy enough so as to bring SS back closer to break-even. One of the little-known aspects of SS is that people who make less money, or no money at all, do MUCH BETTER with the existing system than people who earn upper middle class incomes. For example, if your wife never works...never ever works, she will get about half of any benefit that you get. If she works, depending on circumstances, she may have to work quite a bit to ever match that number based on her own work. My wife will never make that kind of money, or work long enough, at this point, so any money she pays into SS is down the toilet for us. Also, the benefit formula for single workers is heavily low-end favored, based on the fact that the program isn’t much use to people if they are broke when they retire and only see, maybe $500 per month, rather than $1500 per month, where $1500 may be enough to keep them out of poverty. We have 97M people out of the workforce - give them well paying jobs, like Keystone, building the Wall on the Southern Border, and bringing manufacturing back, and people like my wife might just go back to work and help out the SS system.
Just some thoughts.
Here’s an idea. Let’s “reform” retirement benefits for former deadhead government employees first. Gold plated pensions with forever COLA’s. Free medical care for life. Retirement at age 50. All taxpayer funded
Then lets talk about “reforming” SS.