This analysis was designed to promote Cruz, and surprise, it points to Cruz as the winner. I like Cruz in general, but by running a Crusade instead of a campaign, he is marginalizing himself. This will excite Christian social issues voters but he will not win the nomination or over 25% of the electorate in the general election. He is ruined in part by something very shallow - despite his intelligence and presumed probity, the guy somehow looks sneaky and sleazy. That sucks, but there it is.
If this same thinking was prevalent with conservatives 25 yeas ago, Reagan would have never been elected.