“The Sunday Morning Bray”, by Bray!
Matthew 15:14 Let them alone: they be blind leaders of the blind. And if the blind lead the blind, both shall fall into the ditch.
The polls are the story even though they are all useless. Since I said Trump and Cruz would be the leaders, during Trumps first obituary over Mexicans; when all the pundiots were claiming the frontrunners were Bush, Walker and Rubio we should look at why they were so utterly wrong.
The primary reason they were so far off is that their poll models are as bad as Global Warming models. When you use phones as the primary source of data you have to look at the accuracy of your data. With fewer and fewer homes having home phones you have already eliminated a huge swath of your population that you used to have.
The larger problem is with cell phones if you can find them on your call sheets, they all have caller ID and when they see an 800 number or a number they do not recognize they send it to voice mail purgatory. Now you have eliminated over half and most likely three quarters of the people you are trying to predict. So have valid is your sample?
What that leaves you are the bored or liars looking to skew a poll. These are the least likely to give you an honest answer and represents all of these so called polls. To say these polls are within a factor of less than ten percent is a pipe dream and a misrepresentation bordering on fraud.
This is why these same polls and poll takers have been off by more than 10-15% in the latest elections since phones do not vote, people do. There is no way you can predict the GOTV factor of any politician or the emotion built within a population just as we witnessed from the Bibi win, when the worldwide media was declaring him dead.
The most accurate way to judge the polls is to weigh them on how these biased samples are in relation to the general population. If you assume most of the poll companies are a branch of the DNC then you have to factor in a heavy DNC weighting. In addition you have to assume the most likely liar on the phone is also a Dem trying to skew a poll then you weigh the groupthink bias.
Groupthink bias is which candidate the media is promoting and which are they vilifying. People are intimidated to say they like a candidate who is a villain versus which one is sainted in the media. These factors will skew the poll towards the Dem or in this case towards Bush, Rubio, Carson and Carly and away from Trump, Cruz and Walker. These are the ones the media do not like and want to take down. They do not really like Carly, but because she is a girl they give her a pass on the vilification unless she is the nominee or VP.
So how does this all work when predictions such as Trump and Cruz. First you have to realize there is no way of actually knowing with any accuracy where they are in reality. The numbers the media are showing are simply people who still have landlines or had their home phone transferred to their cell. In addition to this small group it only represents those who will answer the phone even though they most likely know it is a pollster and will take the time to answer all of their questions. You have to look at polls are simply trends and not true numbers.
Most of Trump and Cruz’ voters do not match those criteria. Theirs are more educated and do not have the time or patience to answer a pollster. Most of their voters will not answer the phones and those who do are willing to speak in the face of the media. What this means is that Trump and Cruz voters are likely understated and the others are most likely overstated as a trend.
If my theory is righ The Donald is going to win this election and his real numbers are already likely approaching fifty percent. He has far from peaked as opposed to what the Punditocracy says in that most people thought of him as a Billionaire with a reality show. Now that he is leading they are taking a second look at him as an actual presidential candidate and giving him a serious look.
The second groups of voters are the largest portion of the electorate and are now beginning to decide who they would like as their president. These are the ones who take the longest time to decide and are the ones who are the followers and procrastinators. This as a group is heavily female and is the most influenced by those who have the most leadership qualities they can follow. He will do pretty well with that group although his testosterone will turn many off since this society has been so feminized and he is so mean.
Ted Cruz is the better of the two candidates from a Conservative standpoint, but does not have the charisma factor or the unlimited funding and name recognition Trump has. They as a team could win this election going away and we will likely see this. Trump will be the spokesman while Cruz will build the network for getting out the vote.
Trump is most likely only capable of being President for one term and then can turn the reigns over to Cruz. They as a team have the Conservative message and the ability to articulate it to the average voter who is frustrated with the overbearing Marxism in this country. Just like European countries, we are tired of Political Correctness stifling freedom in the guise of civil rights. Americans are tired of being ashamed of America and Trump is showing that.
Pollsters and other charlatans paid to predict elections have no clue what they are saying. They only have to agree with the rest of their echo chamber and when they are proved wrong they simply have to point to their colleagues’ error to be forgiven and keep their jobs. To go against the herd is to put yourself on a limb and if you are wrong the herd will push you out. This is why they keep these phony polls and pay outrageous sums for their corrupt system.
No matter if this theory is right, we are having one of the most interesting elections in the histoir of this country. The dirty little secret is Trump is a genius at self promotion which is actually what campaigning is all about. If this theory is correct and you can actually read between the lines of polls then he will be the candidate and we could have one of the most entertaining elections of our lifetimes. It would be delicious to watch the GOP and the Bush clan “unite” behind Trump. Let the games begin.
Pray America is waking
Note: The above opinion is not necessarily my own, but FReeper Bray’s. If you wish to discuss this, please ping Bray.
“It would be delicious to watch the GOP and the Bush clan “unite” behind Trump. Let the games begin.”
Something like Ronald Reagan’s compromise with the party by taking on George H.W. Bush as vice president?
OORAH!
Bulls-eye again! Be well.
Great post.your polling take is probably spot on as well. I am perplexed about some disturbing news about ted cruzs wife heidi.she spent 5 years in the cfr.no way to explain that.
This is why the very idea of drafting California Lt. Governor Gavin Newsom isn't such a far-fetched idea. Newsom has three things going for him:
1. He has real executive-level political experience by being Mayor of San Francisco (with its crazy politics!) and now Lt. Governor of California.
2. He was on the cutting edge of the same-sex marriage issue, and that makes him very popular on the Left.
3. He's only 47 years old and photogenic, which avoids the age issue that may plague Hillary Clinton and would make him very appealing to younger voters.
Watch for such a move happening if Hillary does drop out.
Thanks for the Trump update, and thanks for the thread, AB.
Good points. I would question two, however. First, if millennials and younger voters are not using land line phones, even those who are Democrats are not answering the polling phone calls just like Republican users.
Secondly, the only polling statistic that counts is the last one they poll. That last one is the one they will use to sell their services for the next cycle so how close they can come impacts their ability to sell their services as accurate. Anything done before that is a “snapshot” at the moment, or so they can claim.
I too like Cruz but he’s not a master salesman like Trump. The major item Cruz brings to the table for any candidate will be his understanding and love of the constitution and he’s the one person who can use conservative principles to help guide Trump or anyone who wins the nomination. Similar to how Palin and Ryan helped previous tickets.
A most interesting aspect of this election so far is how poorly Bush is doing. The GOPe is failing to move him to the top and Bush is failing to get the base behind him.
I know we don't answer an 800 or an "unavailable" number on either our land or mobile lines. We figure if it is important or personal they can leave a message. It is the same thing with political robocalls. They are wasted efforts as far as we are concerned. In fact, all they do is p!ss us off because they are so annoying.
IMHO, a Trump/Cruz ticket is unbeatable - although I don't discount massive voter fraud at the top of the ticket which the Democrats are perfecting to a science and they are in a frenzy to protect through their massive "voter discrimination" lawsuits and friendly judges. I think it was a deciding factor in the key states in the 2012 elections.
I also suspect millions more "undocumented Americans" will be registered (or come in on the last day to vote provisional ballots) and vote in 2016 in addition to the massive voting machine fraud and we know whom they will vote for 100% - their benefactors. They have a lot of skin in this game in 2016 and the Democrats will be in a full court press to uses them and likely millions will sneak through the leaky, compromised voting systems the Dems have been establishing for years.
Your analysis of polling is dead on. I used to have a landline until a few months ago. A young realtor came to my house and when I answered it, she said, “I haven’t seen one of those in a long time.” It was like I was playing a gramaphone.
The first thing I did when we moved to Maui was get an I-phone and I don’t know how I lived without it. I get no polling calls, whereas before, on my landline, I got at least one a day.
The only thing in your whole piece I disagree with is your assessment that Cruz does not have charisma. He totally does. I lived in Texas when he swept the election for Senator away from a much better known candidate who was endorsed by all the Republicans in Texas including Rick Perry. He has so much charisma.
Because of Trump’s extremely high profile, every word he says is widely reported which is great. I’d be very happy with Cruz/Trump in either order.
Good analysis there Alas... you're right, let the games begin...