Political economists can ruminate as long as they wish, government officials can fudge data and statistics all day long and stock traders will do what they do regardless. However the true measure of the economy is the price and demand for commodities. If people are actually making things then there will be a demand for the oil, aluminum, steel, lumber, copper and other materials that are needed. The price will be steady or rising largely based on demand. If demand is low then there is less mining, cutting, and refining. Commodity demand and prices are weak. Currently there is a worldwide economic contraction.
The world economy grew over the last twenty five years. When Russia ,China and India largely ditched socialism, hundreds of millions of people entered the middle classes and created a demand for the production of real goods. The innovations in electronics (computers, cell phones and other telecommunications technology) greatly stimulated growth. Yet these vast social changes may have stalled,and the innovations have run their course. Excessive debt in the West, political turmoil in the Mideast, economic stagnation and regression in Africa, have staled not only growth but have spawned economic contractions.
The real story of the economy is told in commodity prices.
Oil demand continues to grow. The demand growth rate has slowed.
The price drop started as the supply grew faster than the demand but both were growing.
I agree with you to some extent. However, based on my 30 years experience as a lumber broker, I can tell you that mills almost always increase production to meet demand. Eventually, they always out produce demand and then the price goes down.
This is why most commodities go up and down. When prices goes up, manufactures increase production to meet demand because they are making money. How do you make more money with a fixed cost plant? Increase production if possible. When everyone increases production they always out produce the demand for that commodity eventually. I have seen it happen over and over.