“Past results are no guarantee of future performance”
Very difficult concept for many...
Very difficult concept for many...
Not a guarantee, but certainly a good indicator. Which is why most stock analysts chart past performance, and why bookies use to to set odds on sporting events.
Go over to Paddy Power and note who is favored to win the NFL Championship next year: the Seattle Seahawks, followed by Green Bay. Seattle won twice in a row, best chance to do so again.
And in the AFC: no surprise, the New England Patriots.
Polls matter, past results ARE indicative of what is likely, but not 100% predictive. To some extent Trump is a black swan event. The closest example might be Perot, but he went third party from the start, so it's hard to drawn parallels.
Can the Vikings (7-9) win the NFC title in 2015/16 season? It's possible. Paddy Power give them 22:1 odds. Which is slightly better odds than Ted Cruz is given by them of winning the Presidency (25:1). Those odds acknowledge that it's possible, just quite unlikely.
I think looking at historic data from 2011 reinforces that view.