When I used to analyze companies for a living, I was fond of saying that many an investor has gone broke being right at the wrong time and I still believe that the fundamental assumptions concerning Donald Trump and his campaign will prove true, the timing is the problem. Fortunately for the argument, the fundamental assumptions allow for variations in timing. That vanity was filed just before the first debate and it predicted that Trump would eventually (that is not necessarily as a result of the first debate) "top" and then see his poll numbers begin to deteriorate. This did not in fact occur after the first debate, indeed it did not occur after the second debate but it does appear to be happening now, at least in Iowa.
Just a few minutes ago I watched a "debate" on Fox in which the contention was made that Trump's numbers in Iowa are deteriorating as a result of ads which emphasize his penchant for eminent domain and which include the allegation that he personally profits from exploiting eminent domain. Although I have no way of judging what sort of ads are actually appearing in Iowa, it is abundantly clear that there are multiple points of vulnerability of this sort which can be exploited in ad campaigns against Trump. It's clear the Trump has the financial wherewithal to respond in kind but can he "win" such as air war? Pissing contests are not healthy environments for one who can survive only so long as he is larger-than-life. When an organization such as the Alliance for Growth showcases these attack ads, Trump has no individual, no person, whom he can Alinsky-like humiliate and discredit. The Lilliputians can thus bring him down with a thousand cuts.
Having been burned several times getting the timing of investments wrong, reality has taught me to be to be wary of going on the public record to predict Donald Trump's political eclipse when it is attached to any timeline. Nevertheless the temptation to do so is strong when one looks at the polls in Iowa which show remarkably similar results and proclaim a radical reversal of fortunes for Trump and Carson. These two polls can be very significant because much of Trump's appeal, or at least much of the tortured rationalizations in support of Trump's grotesqueries, are "so what, the man is a winner -just look at the polls." Well, let's look at the two polls in Iowa and we must conclude from them that the Emperor has no clothes, at least in Iowa. Trump is not inevitable, rather he is vulnerable and he has a record which makes him vulnerable on every front. He is vulnerable to attacks from the left and he is vulnerable to attacks from the right. He is vulnerable to attacks for his boorishness and he is vulnerable for attacks for his misogyny. There is scarcely any issue in which he is not offended both sides at one time or another with his public remarks. Donald Trump is vulnerable.
Thank you for your kind words.
