You could just as easily be right. I haven’t looked at the polls too closely but I would think Rubio would be Jeb’s biggest threat. Let’s hope this thing thins out at some point and conservatives coalesce around one candidate.
I think Rubio takes about an equal number of votes that would have otherwise gone to Jeb as those that would have otherwise have gone to a conservative alternative to Jeb. A lot of people are still convinced that Rubio is a Tea Party conservative rather than a con man.