Solar activity predicted to fall 60% in 2030s, to 'mini ice age' levels: Sun driven by double dynamo

Royal Astronomical Society (RAS) ^ | July 09, 2015 | n/a

[Ken H]

Summary:

A new model of the Sun's solar cycle is producing unprecedentedly accurate predictions of irregularities within the Sun's 11-year heartbeat. The model draws on dynamo effects in two layers of the Sun, one close to the surface and one deep within its convection zone.

Predictions from the model suggest that solar activity will fall by 60 per cent during the 2030s to conditions last seen during the 'mini ice age' that began in 1645.

Results will be presented today by Prof Valentina Zharkova at the National Astronomy Meeting in Llandudno.

[Marie]

I have searched high and low and I cannot find the smoothed numbers for the first six months of this year.

Why won’t they smooth them?

Two reasons.

1. It’ll show that we’re dropping faster than expected
2. They’ve decided to ‘adjust’ the Wolf number record to ‘make it more realistic’. We’re about to lose hundreds of years of data and Lord knows how they’re going to count SS from here on out.

But I can promise you, it won’t look so bad. I’m sure that they’re going to count Tiny Tims and suddenly the sun won’t seem so quiet.

Bastards.

[Marie]

As of July 1st, they’ve ‘readjusted’ the way that we count SSNs. The Wolf system is gone.

What’s your opinion?

http://www.sidc.be/silso/datafiles
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/01/04/counting-sunspots-and-sunspot-inflation/
http://www.mat.uc.pt/~cspm2015/abstracts/63_Frederic_Clette.html

This reminds me of when the ‘readjusted’ historical temperatures to show more warming than there really is.

[dragnet2]

Not sure was /lib means , but that has to be sarcasm.☺

[dragnet2]

My opinion is I just look for myself..☺

Btw I am sure the new systems have some valuable data, but like you, I am very suspicious of any new measurement systems or new data analysis as it relates to earth climate and factors affecting it. It's already well documented there are folks out there attempting to manipulate the data. Their motives are all driven by their insatiable agendas to control.

[jonno]

My own nerdy variation. Thanks for the botd...

(sorry - couldn't resist 8^)

[Marie]

Here are the ‘adjusted’ SSNs from the historical data.

http://www.stce.be/press/01/welcome.html

I asked for an evaluation from Solarham.

[dragnet2]

Thanks and ping me if they ever respond. I am very skeptical of any new systems for analyzing data as it relates to these things. Of course like many others, I’m like that with everything nowadays.

[Mycroft Holmes]