“Putin doesn’t have a military capable of sustained, large invasions anymore.”
Putin doesn’t need a military capable of sustained large invasions. He just needs a military capable of walking in and announcing “you’re ours” and quietly shooting anyone who disagrees, a la Ukraine.
Frequently redrawn borders are the historical norm in Europe. Leadership - current US CiC especially - shows no interest in enforcing current borders by force.
Like Ukraine?
We and other NATO nations are still doing military exercises in Ukraine.
Putin’s military, largely made up of poorly trained, poorly equipped, 1 year draftees, with little capability to move large numbers of troops and supplies, especially if Western nations are destroying them on the roads, are seemingly having troubles with Ukraine, they are not capable of conducting large invasions against the nations of Europe and NATO.