[Rodamala]

more oil is going out of storage than oil is going in.

Please, reread that. It completely conflicts with what you wrote, Durus.

Thackney wrote that more oil is leaving storage than entering. If true, this means, regardless of the fact that production is going up or down or sideways... the "glut" of oil IS ENTERING THE MARKET, so there must be some sort of demand for it.

I just wonder where is the crash you forecast? Haven't we seen it already? Where is the $17/bbl crude oil that we haven't seen since, like, 1999?

Regardless of all that, there will always be soccermoms driving minivans full of kids to gymnastics or dance classes, or yoga or "pilates for kids" or whatever.

There will always be demand for cold beer and Air Conditioning, because people want an easy life watching "Ow, My Balls", or the "Monday Night Rehabilitation".

By 2020, based on crash/recovery cycles previously, I can easily see recovery to $140/bbl.

Then again, we will have probably been nuked by Iran by that point.

[Durus]

I didn't predict a crash, what I said was they increased storage to prevent a crash. Now that reserves are being diminished at slightly greater than replacement levels it indicates that companies feel that they have it under control. Oil is a completely controlled market so we aren't ever likely to see a crash until some sort of viable replacement is found. At least the myth of "peak oil" is slowly eroding.

I don't see a "recovery" to $140bbl. We simply have too much oil to justify the increase and market manipulation can only do so much. It is the nature of commodities to slowly decrease in price. Only because oil is treated like a nonrenewable resource and is highly regulated has allowed it to buck this trend.

Idiotic television aside I'm a strong advocate for cold beer and air conditioning.