Posted on 05/26/2015 9:35:12 PM PDT by ckilmer
Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) is leading the way in electric vehicle technology, especially in batteries, and this is a good time to be in Tesla’s position. Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS) estimates that “electrified vehicles” will be one-quarter of the car sales in the world in the next ten years. The analysts define “electrified vehicles” as those with an electric powertrain, which include not only EVs but also hybrids and fuel cell vehicles.
Tesla is taking one of the first and most important steps in advancing “electrified” vehicle technology, and that’s ramping up battery production.
Goldman Sachs analysts released Volume 1 of their “Cars 2025: A disruptive new era of the Automotive Age.” In it, they discuss the shift that’s happening within the auto industry, seven “megatrends” they see unfolding and why it’s more urgent than ever that the industry embraces new technologies. Here are the seven megatrends they see as being essential over the next several years in the auto industry. (All charts/ graphs in this article are courtesy Goldman Sachs.)
Unsurprisingly, they believe electric vehicles play a major role in the future of the automotive industry. It’s understandable why many analysts remain bearish on EVs, however, as the Goldman team notes that the penetration rate is far below what Nissan Motor Co., Ltd. (ADR) (OTCMKTS:NSANY) (TYO:7201) and other automakers were expecting five years ago.
Electric vehicles have a major advantage over those with internal combustion engines. They have a third as many parts as their gas-powered counterparts.
However, this advantage also comes with one big disadvantage, at least for now. Battery costs and durability and lengthy charging times are a huge barrier to adoption. As time goes on though, Tesla and others, possibly even Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), are going to drive more innovations forward. Battery makers, including MMC and AESC, are reporting that by 2018, lithium-ion batteries will likely have double the energy density of what they do now.
A big part of advancements in battery technology is production capacity, and Tesla aims to fix this issue with its $5 billion gigafactory. The Goldman Sachs team believes the facility will be an important turning point in the next five to ten years. Panasonic Corporation (ADR) (OTCMKTS:PCRFY) (TYO:6752) is partnering with the EV manufacturer and intends to invest by paying for between 30% and 40% of the production equipment for the facility.
By 2020, Tesla expects the factory’s capacity to be 50 GWh per year, which the Goldman team said is the same capacity as three-and-a-half standard nuclear power plants. The automaker expects to be able to produce half a million Tesla vehicles with 35 GWh. The other 15 GWh is expected to be used for the home and business energy storage systems Tesla unveiled last month.
Together, Panasonic and Tesla expect to be able to slash battery costs by approximately 30% to 40% after production at the gigafactory is fully ramped. The Goldman Sachs team expects the price per watt-hour for EV batteries to be cut in half within the next ten years.
The Japanese government expects that in the next five years, there will be high demand for EVs with a range of 250 to 300 kilometers and that the price per watt-hour will be about 50 cents. The analysts think these milestones could be reached three years earlier, however, because of how many battery suppliers there are in Japan
Down the road, EVs are expected to become more affordable and hit the mass market, but probably not until the late 2020s using this same roadmap, according to the Goldman Sachs team.
Unfortunately this projection throws cold water on Tesla’s goal to have a mass market “affordable EV out in the next few years. But then again, if Tesla could achieve this milestone before any other automaker, it would have a significant lead over all of its competitors, just as it has now in terms of battery technology and EV range.
Tesla will be left in the dust soon.
Next year, a major manufacturer will be announcing a plug-in electric vehicle with unlimited range, refueling as quickly as current vehicles and cost at or below current gasoline vehicles.
It will use similar technology to locomotives, having an IC engine to power a generator that drives electric motors. It will have a small battery pack (less weight) for buffering that can be charged via plug-in (for tax credit purposes, but not really necessary in this configuration). As long as the IC engine has fuel, you are driving on electric power.
It can be reversed and act as a backup generator for your house as well.
Watch the North American International Auto Show in Detroit in January for the unveiling. But it will leak before then.
This is why Apple & Tesla both toured the assembly plant that will offer this.
Oh, the technology is so easy to use that it can be spread across the entire lineup of FWD vehicles easily and cheaply.
How much did that cost me?
Exhibit 38 only shows 2 of 3 critical factors.
Not only do battery cars need to go 700 kilometers and weight 40 kilograms, they need to recharge in under 5 minutes
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What if cars are designed to accept automated swap outs of precharged battery packs?
The chart on part count doesn’t make any sense at all. Why would the EV have the same number of engine parts, yet have NO body, suspension, braking, electrical components, and “other” parts? Will the EV be so uncomfortable to ride in that no one will bother to listen to the radio? I wonder what else in the article is wrong?
That's about $2,000 for 40 KWh. That's a huge reduction from today's price of about $10,000.
Why did I pick 40 KWh? That's about the same energy as in a gallon of gasoline. Would you really want to spend $2,000 for a container that holds that much energy, that costs five bucks to fill up from your electrical company, when you can spend 10 bucks for a one gallon container, and fill it for less than 3 bucks?
I wonder,does it take more energy to make the electricity or to make a gallon of gas? It definitely takes more to make the batteries than a gas can.
What is the size of the Battery pack?
How many can be stored at your local refuel (Gas Station)
Do you have the necessary volume of current going into the re-charge station to re-charge 1000 packs over 8 hours?
How many cars can be “re-fueled” each day?
Has to be one size for ALL electric cars.
I see a lot of issues with high volume re-charge of cars or high volume of battery swap out’s
That’s why Electric Cars never caught on over the previous 125 years
How many cars can be re-fued at the same time?
Hyndai and Toyota are working to bring Hydrogen fueled vehicles to market.
For me, that beats electric, and could compete with Gas/Diesel
Been hearing the “in the next 10 years” refrain for decades.
One good thing about all these advances is golf carts now go many times as far as they used to on a charge., no...wait, they do not go any furgher than they did 50 years ago. Some progress on the EV front.
It takes (much) more energy to make the electricity. Most all electricity in the US comes from burning fossil fuels. There is significant inefficiency in burning it, generating the electricity, and in the power lines getting it to your home. That's why it costs more than gasoline, per KWh. I'm not counting the solar energy in creating the fossil fuels in the first place.
Hydrogen is fine, but still requires a great amount of energy to create.
You forgot CNG which is gaining ground fast.
All (gas, diesel, hydrogen and CNG) should freely compete as each has strengths/weaknesses.
Why did I pick 40 KWh? That’s about the same energy as in a gallon of gasoline.
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Is that total energy, or the energy that can be extracted and used by an internal combustion engine?
Next year, a major manufacturer will be announcing a plug-in electric vehicle with unlimited range, refueling as quickly as current vehicles and cost at or below current gasoline vehicles.
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Jeez Louise. That’s huge. And far beyond anything currently publicly talked about. In fact, its in the seeing is believing realm. What do you mean by “unlimited range”. How far will it go on a charge.
Any idea how long it will take them to produce vehicles in volume?
Disadvantages? How about the real choice most EV drivers will always have to evaluate - in slow or stalled traffic in the winter, you can choose locomotion or warmth. Likewise in the south in summer, you can have your movement or your AC. Something’s got to give.
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That’s why most Teslas are in California right now where the temperature is always picture perfect.
This had been tried in Israel by a company called "Better Place." It failed.
Appears that it costs a bunch of money to develop and maintain the robots that can remove and reinstall batteries; and to develop an EV with a removable battery; and to make sure that there is enough of those swap stations; and to guarantee that every visitor has a charged battery waiting for him; and that every driver is capable of driving into the swap area safely and stop within inches of the required position; and many other factors.
This did not work in perfectly clean and dry streets of Israel. This has no chance to work if you take the car through 100 miles of dirt roads, or through a rainstorm or a snowstorm. The mechanic would have to thaw and wash the bottom of the car before the battery can be even seen, let alone disconnected. Any piece of gravel in a wrong spot may cause sparks, a short, or loss of power. Not good.
Battery Swap Pilot Program
The Tesla Motors Team December 19, 2014
At an event in Los Angeles last year, we showcased battery swap technology to demonstrate that it’s possible to replace a Model S battery in less time than it takes to fill a gas tank. This technology allows Model S owners in need of a battery charge the choice of either fast or free. The free long distance travel option is already well covered by our growing Supercharger network, which is now at 312 stations with more than 1,748 Superchargers worldwide. They allow Model S drivers to charge at 400 miles per hour. Now we’re starting exploratory work on the fast option.
Starting next week, we will pilot a pack swap program with invited Model S owners. They will be given the opportunity to swap their car’s battery at a custom-built facility located across the street from the Tesla Superchargers at Harris Ranch, CA. This pilot program is intended to test technology and assess demand.
At least initially, battery swap will be available by appointment and will cost slightly less than a full tank of gasoline for a premium sedan. More time is needed to remove the titanium and hardened aluminum ballistic plates that now shield the battery pack, so the swap process takes approximately three minutes.
With further automation and refinements on the vehicle side, we are confident that the swap time could be reduced to less than one minute, even with shields. Tesla will evaluate relative demand from customers for paid pack swap versus free charging to assess whether it merits the engineering resources and investment necessary for that upgrade.
It is powered by a gas/diesel/cng engine connected to a generator.
TESLA seems to be in the same position as ford before gas stations and roads.....NO EV infrastructure.... Goldman treats its clients as MUPPETS THERE TO BE ABUSED.......
factor in the REAL COSTS INCLUDING INFRASTRUTURE and you THE TAXPAYER WILL SEE tesla needs YOU TO PAY FOR THE INFRASTRUCTURE...... sucker
hence the LIBTARD TREND is to tax by the mile in addition to the gas tax (of course ev’s dont use gas)
and dont think about the pollution involved in making and disposing of batteries and battery byproducts... nah just forget about that.... reality blows...as do the LIBTARDS pushing EV’s / climate change and HOPE AnD CHANGE
agree with your politics. however most of the teslas being sold in the USA are in california and then in only a couple select parts of california where there’s plenty of infrastructure. that said most major cities now have a couple ev stations and houses can be fitted for recharge. Teslas are still toys for the rich. but that will change.
cars were first the playthings of the rich until henry ford came along. that’s the business model that tesla wants to follow.
you mean they use gas/diesel/cng internal combustion engine to power an electrical generator to move the power train?
that would work if it materially increased the mpg of the car. does it?
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