Agreed, it’s the demographics, stupid. No longer the economy, stupid. In the last presidential election, MR won 59% of the white vote. A few decades ago, that fact alone would have guaranteed MR a landslide victory similar to Nixon in 1972 or RR in 1984. One reason why the GOP has done fairly well in recent midterm elections is due to the fact that in the midterms, you have a much smaller electorate, older, whiter, more disciplined, more conservative, therefore more GOP than is the case in presidential election years. Another structural problem facing the GOP in addition to demographics-—since the New Deal the Democrats have pursued a long term strategy of getting as many people as possible dependent upon government as possible. But as Margaret Thatcher once pointed out, the problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people’s money.
As far as state voting patterns are concerned, that is always subject to change. I live in CA. Our state voted reliably GOP for 40 years between 1952 and 1992 (except for the 1964 landslide loss) in presidential elections. Now the state is solidly blue. Other once staunchly Dem states which used to vote reliably Dem have recently become reliably GOP in recent years. These states include WV, LA, KY, AR among others. And there are always the swing states like OH, VA, and FL which constantly swing back and forth. I do agree with you, demographics trends favor the Dems in presidential elections. GOP must run the tables on virtually all of the swing states to have a chance.
Agreed, it’s the demographics, stupid. No longer the economy, stupid. In the last presidential election, MR won 59% of the white vote. A few decades ago, that fact alone would have guaranteed MR a landslide victory similar to Nixon in 1972 or RR in 1984. One reason why the GOP has done fairly well in recent midterm elections is due to the fact that in the midterms, you have a much smaller electorate, older, whiter, more disciplined, more conservative, therefore more GOP than is the case in presidential election years. That is precisely what is happening. And the demographics have been fueled by immigration starting with the 1965 Immigration Act. Non-Hispanic whites will be a minority by 2043. Every cohort that turns 18 annually is more minority and more Democrat. Obsama and the Dems realize that they don't need the majority of white voters to win. We are being colonized by the Third World.
Another structural problem facing the GOP in addition to demographics-—since the New Deal the Democrats have pursued a long term strategy of getting as many people as possible dependent upon government as possible. But as Margaret Thatcher once pointed out, the problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people’s money.
Immigrants and minorities are natural Dem voters, which is why they vote two to one Dem. They are also the most dependent upon big government due to poverty and poor educational attainment.
