“In less than ten years electric cars (and fuel cell cars in Japan) -—are going to start taking a bite out of demand for oil...”
https://www.fuelseurope.eu/policy-priorities/products
Contains a graphic about products produced at oil refineries. Although its an EU graphic, it is representative of oil refineries elsewhere. Electric cars are not making oil refining disappear anytime soon. Gasoline is a fraction of what is produced from a barrel of oil, depending on how a refinery wishes to refine it. Electric cars are heavily subsidized, and if they weren’t then gasoline vehicles still win in a price war and will be a majority of vehicles for a while. Text from that link:
“Electricity produces no tailpipe emissions, but today’s batteries cannot match the energy density of liquid fuels: liquid fuel contains around 100 times as much energy as an electric battery the same weight. The emissions generated when electricity is generated also need to be included in the balance to consider the “well to wheels” emissions of all fuels...”
Tesla alone plans to be producing 500,000 electric cars by 2020. and then go up from there.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/markrogowsky/2014/02/26/tesla-5b-gigafactory-bombshell-500000-cars-by-2020/
The most important thing about Tesla however, is not so much Tesla as what they are doing to the entire automobile industry.
The chinese for example plan to have their own gigafactory open by 2020.http://www.ibtimes.com/chinese-gigafactory-byd-says-it-could-have-battery-production-capacity-roughly-equal-1847002
Forbes in 2013 estimated that Worldwide Electric Vehicle Sales to Reach 3.8 Million Annually by 2020
http://www.forbes.com/sites/tjmccue/2013/01/03/worldwide-electric-vehicle-sales-to-reach-3-8-million-annually-by-2020/