Happy Naw Ruz Ping!
Posted on 03/22/2015 7:24:29 AM PDT by expat_panama
Happy Naw Ruz Ping!
"Instead of being able to analyze and evaluate market forces, then make informed judgments and take rational actions, Wall Streeters are left to guess what the FOMC members are thinking. Worse, the members’ thinking is vacillating, and they are overriding their previous statements, seemingly by whim. The end result, ironically, is Fed-induced uncertainty, volatility and risk — the opposite of what the Fed should be doing."
Right after I posted this there was a Forbes response to the article that began the thread: How The Fed Fostered The Oil Glut And Price Drop - Wall Street Losing Patience. Funny but is sure seems to me that blaming the Fed for everything is sounding more and more like how everything got blamed on Bush. The real problem of course is as always the left's war on business.
“The lefts war on business.”
I agree.
The narrative is how the monetary policy should be this or that or whatever.
The discussion over time has devolved and has completely left out any discussion regarding getting government out of the way of business and let businesses grow. Remove the government from business, remove taxes and regulations and watch the economy grow like crazy. But this isn’t even in the discussion anymore.
You, me, and a few others know it but the loony left press has somehow dumped a lot of conservatives into getting off track and wandering into this blind Fed-bashing fest.. A number of very good conservative politicians have followed suit too, either because they don't know any better or because they want the votes more than than they want doing what they know is better. Not sure which is worse...
My thought is that it’s about time to start taking profits off the table. The Fed will doubtless raise rates and that’ll tank the bond market. Higher interest rates will slow consumer spending; all the while...the market will go up as money flows into stocks out of bonds; that’s the beginning of the making of a market blow-off-top. The market will start to fall in the wake of poor earning’s news, probably this fall or after crappy Christmas sales this December.
--and it's for sure the sun will expand and fry all life on our planet. If it's not happening any time soon then we've got a lot to do in the mean time. While we can set aside worrying about the sun, the Fed's time frame is a bit less certain but so far I'm hard pressed to see any serious reason why a rate hike is needed any time in the foreseable future. Somehow everyone's got it in their heads that the Fed has to raise rates as soon as possible just so they can lower 'em again later. The only reason the Fed does rates is for inflation, and if there's no inflation there's no rate hike. Ever.
Good morning, we're looking at an "interesting" week here and today's shaping into 'prep-work' for it. This morning we just get the Existing Home Sales but later in the week comes CPI day followed by GDP finals. Right now futures are down -0.18% for stock indexes and -0.27% for metals --trending downward.
[fumbling for coffee...]
Did I tell you before?
If not, thanks so much for your efforts
I think they hike 25bps by the end of the year. Just to show that they can and will. 25bps won’t make a damn bit of difference to anything especially considering the mess the ROW is in.
tx, partly for my ego (no small issue) but it’s mainly good to know when others concur. Missing stuff can be expensive.
...they hike 25bps by the end of the year. Just to show that they can and will...
There really is that possibility, and I deeply hope a better reason comes up. If we continue with our flat/negative inflation numbers then imho a hike would be a disaster ala 1930. Of coruse a lot can happen over the next 3 quarters and rising prices would make a hike or two necessary, but raising rates on a whim is crazy.
OK, so I'll admit it, "crazy" never stopped anyone...
Financially, Greece is still....Greece.
Greece’s leader warns Merkel of ‘impossible’ debt payments
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/ae9d0cb8-d0b5-11e4-982a-00144feab7de.html#axzz3VD9FzbfX
Really, they only consider inflation you figure? Zero political influence?
I work in civil engineering. I see ROW and all I get is right-of-way. What is tour term?
LOL. ROW = Rest of World
I will continue to research the issue of if/why the Fed will raise rates. I completely agree that its crazy. However, as I’ve seen and heard of late, they’ve been laying the ground work for this rate increase for quite some time now and Yellin is getting impatient to make the move.
The best reason I’ve come across, and its a lousy one, for why the Fed feels compelled to raise rates is that rate control is one of the very few tools in their tool box and to the extent that rates remain near zero, they are essentially deprived of the use of this “tool”. Frankly, I think there’s something more to this, but I’ve not been able to parse it out. I will continue to try to discover it.
The greatest problem I see with this is that albeit the endless volume of speculation over hyper inflation, what the Fed has really been fighting is Deflation and we presently stand at the precipice of a Deflationary spiral. It would thus seem to me that to raise rates would be to push this economy off the cliff into that Deflationary spiral and with their history laid out before them, I have to believe the Fed knows that.
You mean that there is political influence at the Fed?
Me too (RCE Calif.) and all this time I was trying to work around some mess was in the right of way all for nothing.
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