Posted on 03/17/2015 3:35:58 PM PDT by Greetings_Puny_Humans
Last week Russia formally walked out of another arms control treaty, the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) treaty. This treaty was widely regarded as one of the building blocks of post-Cold War European security but it now appears to be formally dead and buried. Indeed, Moscow announced it would not renegotiate this treaty though it might possibly discuss a new one. These steps actually embody the continuing disregard for international law that Moscow’s behavior, as opposed to its rhetoric, has regularly expressed. Despite a torrent of rhetoric about the need for states to observe international law, in fact Moscow unilaterally suspended its participation in the CFE treaty in 2007 thereby creating a category of behavior regarding treaties that does not exist and it has since then also been found to be violating the INF treaty of 1987. And its actions in Ukraine broke a whole series of international and bilateral treaties and agreements.
Not only does this behavior evince a return to Soviet times it also clearly undermines hopes for European and international security. And by doing so Moscow also undermines prospects for Russia’s long-term security as well. Certainly there is no plausible security rationale for this behavior. For a long time Moscow has been flooding the media with the cries that NATO is advancing to its borders, threatening it in all kinds of ways, and that the NATO spearhead force set up in reaction to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, itself a violation of a host of international and bilateral treaties and accords, somehow threatens Russia’s security and vital interests. The facts, however, totally disprove Moscow’s frenzied propaganda assault. In separate speeches in Washington in 2014 both the Norwegian and Estonian defense ministers conceded that in the Baltic theater Moscow has regional superiority. Not content with this superiority Moscow has conducted overflights and submarine incursions around Sweden, Finland, all of Europe from the Arctic to the Mediterranean, and towards the US. Since nobody knows whether or not it is carrying nuclear weapons in these planes these overflights raise immense potential dangers of unwanted and surprise military action leading to unpredictable scenarios. These flights also occur with transponders shut off in the vicinity of huge numbers of civilian flights creating the possibility of another air disaster like the Malaysian Airlines disaster of 2014 where Russian-backed rebels or Russian troops, using Russian weapons, shot down a civilian airliner over Ukraine with immense loss of life.
Under the circumstances the only plausible reason for continuing this drumbeat of phony charges is to create a justification for militarizing the Russian state and economy both materially and, equally importantly, psychologically or cognitively. As Hitler, Lenin and Stalin did, and as described by Orwell, what Henry Adams called the systematic organization of hatred keeps society in a state of induced paranoia, violence, and uncertainty.
Putin is digging a hole for himself, while he is weak and alone today, he is recreating a Cold War mentality among the peoples and politics of NATO, which is already vastly stronger than he is. This will help conservative politicians and strong national defense politics and budgets, and policy arguments in the West.
In America for instance, we will be having a new election fairly soon, and a president that will be able to use all of this against Putin and the American, and Western left.
Remember that the current Russia has less than half the population that the USSR had: 150 million vs 350. There is no way that it has the physical horsepower that it used to have. When leaders start yapping about an imaginary external threat it is ALWAYS to distract the home folks from their local problems. As has been noted Russia is a poorly run gas company trying to be a country and with the price of crude oil down Pootin no doubt feels he has to flex while he still has fuel for his Bears.
Pootin used all the transport he had to screw up Ukraine. He now doesn’t have enough left to get out of his own way. While he has the means to do random damage he ain’t actually going anyplace. Should he actually do anything dramatic and our own Grand Kenyan refused to respond we would have to have our own “depose” party——then respond at the melting point of Moscow.
Times have changed. Whatever country Russia tries to plug into, Russia will be gobbled up there. As for nukes, ha! Russian junk is for range practice.
Mass militarization. At first I thought it might refer to our new “normal” of constant war in numerous countries and working to destabilize other areas.
14 years and counting.
"According to the International Institute of Strategic Studies’ "Military Balance" publication — a widely-used and well-respected unclassified compendium of information about the world’s armed forces — in 1989, just before the collapse of the Warsaw Pact, the Soviet Union deployed a total of 64 divisions in what was then known as its “Western Theater of Military Operations.” These are the Russian forces that would have been hurled at NATO in an attack on Western Europe. They would have been reinforced by another 700,000 troops from the USSR’s three frontline Warsaw Pact allies, East Germany, Czechoslovakia, and Poland. In all, more than 100 divisions would have been available for a drive into West Germany and beyond. The six countries committed to defending NATO’s front lines — West Germany, the United States, Great Britain, Canada, Belgium and the Netherlands — meanwhile deployed only 21 or so divisions in Germany. While NATO divisions were generally somewhat larger than their Warsaw Pact counterparts and reinforcement would have been forthcoming from the United States, the disparity along the East-West frontier was nonetheless huge.
Consider the situation today. East Germany no longer exists, while Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and every one of Russia’s other erstwhile Warsaw Pact partners are now members of NATO. So are Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which in 1989 were parts of the Soviet Union itself. In 1989, the Red Army had almost a half-million troops and 27 maneuver divisions (plus enormous quantities of artillery and other units) on the territory of its three main allies. Today, it has a total of seven divisions in its entire Western Military District, all of which are based on its own territory. Indeed, the entire Russian army today boasts about 25 divisions, fewer than it had forward deployed in its Eastern European allies during the waning days of the Cold War.
Today, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Germany alone field more divisions than Russia has in its Western Military District. These countries are backstopped by the rest of NATO, including, of course, the United States."
Indeed. The Soviet Bear is still there and Putin is,was,and always will be KGB
You thought that because you are an obnoxious Putinista who can see the crumbling of our military all around you and still justify Russian propaganda that depicts us as the great and hungry Satan.
Scrap in Russia might be a pretty good business for some in the near future.
Good observation.
One need look no further than the curriculum vitae of the author Stephen Blank for confirmation of that bias, and Interpreter magazine itself is just another propaganda bullhorn for one of the dissident Russian oligarchs.
Is that a joke? I’ll just say you are the obnoxious one for civilities’ sake and point out how I miss the days where these pages were filled with intelligent debate and information. Comments like that make me think this is a climate change or DNC rally.
Funny thing is, you imply that his comments were "intelligent." If you really think the United States is involved in "mass militarization," you need to get your head examined.
I probably do need that examination. The “mass militarization” is a world wide effect of the insane US foreign policy.
Oh, so the truth comes out. You were a fellow traveler with that lousy bum. This is why Rand Paul should never be allowed to be President. These freaks who blame the United States instead of the freedom hating dictator for the actions of the freedom hating dictator are quite frankly useful idiots.
Ok so my turn to play the assumption game and put words in your mouth. First I’m glad to see that you think Obama’s weak foreign policy is a good thing. Nothing like a good old fashioned arms race in the most unstable part of the world! I’m also happy that you admit not putting the missile defense system in Ukraine was a good idea. And best of all you think the fall out in Iraq, Yemen, Libya and others as a good thing. I don’t know why you have to resort to name calling so I will announce it was poor upbringing and union membership that influenced you. If calling people bums, putinistas and the like is all you’ve got then maybe head on over to hufpo.
I just looked at your in forum page, wow member for less than 2 years, convinced most of us are trolls and throw around alinsky accusations. You resort to name calling a lot too. How about you put your big boy pants on and let the adults talk.
This seems confused on your part: Either you think Obama's foreign policy is weak, or you think he is involved in an arms race? Then you think it is weak again, but in a good way, by saying you're glad we didn't put any missile defense systems in Ukraine? (Actually it was Poland, you know nothing.)
But maybe I am misunderstanding you here.
Do you think that Russia is justified to be invading Georgia and Ukraine?
No I don’t think it was ok. No I’m not confused. You assumed mass militarization was in reference to the US. You assumed a lot. You assume the perpetual war is good to I guess. You don’t have to kick all your crappy neighbors around if they just know you will. Today the world knows we won’t and our allies know they can’t count on us to keep our word hence the mass militarization, more perpetual war and arms race. Flip side without the support of Europe we can’t do much about Russia in Ukraine.
Oh yeah I’m glad to see you left out name calling this time.
And I’m pretty sure part of that missile defense was going in Ukraine. Radar I believe.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.