Even if Likud loses, Netanyahu could become prime minister

McClatchyDC ^ | March 15, 2015 | Joel Greenberg

[2ndDivisionVet]

JERUSALEM — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his party trailing in polls leading up to Tuesday’s vote, entered the final two days of his campaign Sunday with one card still unplayed: Israel’s complicated electoral system, which doesn’t guarantee that the party with the most seats in Parliament forms the government.

The final polls published ahead of the election Tuesday gave opposition leader Isaac Herzog the edge, with his Zionist Union alliance likely to win four more seats than Netanyahu’s Likud party when the votes are counted.

But that does not mean victory, unless Herzog can form a governing coalition. Neither Likud nor the Zionist Union will garner anything near the 61-seat majority of the 120-seat Parliament required to form a government. So the question becomes which candidate, Herzog or Netanyahu, is more likely to persuade enough of Israel’s smaller parties to join a coalition that commands at leasts 61 votes.

That candidate is most likely to get the nod from Israel’s president, Reuvin Rivlin, a Likud party member who assumed the post in July....

[SunkenCiv]

Got to get to 61 to govern; using Debka’s figures:

Likud 28
Naftali Bennett’s Bayit Yehudi 8
Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Shelano 5
Yair Lapid’s Future 11-12
Moshe Kachlon’s Kulanu 9

That’s 61 or 62 — doubtful that the religious parties which have survived the election will join the opposition, so throw in another 13 seats, total of 74 or 75.

Opposition (32 seats):

Zionist Union 27
Meretz 5

The other, other operation (back bench bitching):

Joint list of Arab factions 13 seats

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks!