Posted on 03/11/2015 3:59:37 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
“Donna [Edwards] has to hope she remains the only minority candidate,” said one longtime Democratic Maryland strategist who has worked on multiple campaigns in the state. “The more white males that jump in, the better it is for her.”
Maryland Democrats are bracing for a bitter primary battle split along gender, race, geographic and ideological lines.
“It’s going to be a nasty, nasty primary,” one Democratic state legislator told The Hill. “When you have primaries with people that have such similar voting records, it usually comes down to character attacks.”
That’s the scene Democrats fear is unavoidable after longtime Sen. Barbara Mikulski’s (D-Md.) surprise retirement announcement last week.
Reps. Chris Van Hollen, who was first to announce last week, and Donna Edwards, who jumped in on Tuesday, are the only official candidates so far, but at least nine other Democrats in the state are considering bids.
Edwards has quickly rallied the support of the grassroots liberals that helped her knock off a longtime Democrat in a 2008 primary. Democracy for America and the Progressive Change Campaign Committee launched draft efforts to get Edwards into the race. “She’s one us,” they declared upon her announcement.
Van Hollen is the establishment favorite, having already landed the endorsement of Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), highlighting his heft on Capitol Hill as the ranking Budget committee member and former Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman.
However, other influential endorsements may be few and far between. A representative for House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) told The Hill she doesn’t endorse in competitive primaries, and a representative for whip Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) said he “has no plans to endorse at the moment” among his home state colleagues.
Pelosi has deep ties to the Old Line State. Her father, Thomas D’Alesandro Jr., represented Maryland’s 3rd District in the House for nearly a decade and later was elected mayor of Baltimore.
The House minority leader raised eyebrows last week when she indicated in a New York Times interview she’d prefer to see Van Hollen stay in the House, arguing that the Democratic caucus could benefit from a “generational change.”
Edwards has an advantage as an African-American female in the race, but she may not have that bloc to herself.
“Donna has to hope she remains the only minority candidate,” said one longtime Democratic Maryland strategist who has worked on multiple campaigns in the state. “The more white males that jump in, the better it is for her.”
Edwards has told The Hill she intends to highlight the importance of replacing Mikulski with another woman in the Senate.
“When I first started voting in the state, four members of our House delegation were women, and the first woman I ever voted for Senate was Barbara Mikulski,” she said last week. “We are on the verge of not having any representation of women in our state in the Senate and I think it’s pretty compelling and something that makes me think about it even more.”
But Edwards isn’t the only woman, or even the only African-American woman, that could potentially run for Senate. Stephanie Rawlings-Blake, the black mayor of Baltimore, is also weighing her options, as is former Maryland Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, a member of the powerful Kennedy family.
A representative for EMILY’s List said the group intends to be active in the primary to help elect a progressive woman, but that they’re holding their endorsement for now to see how the field shakes out.
There are also a handful of minority men potentially looking to get into the race, including former NAACP President Benjamin Jealous, Rep. Elijah Cummings, Labor Secretary Tom Perez and former Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown.
“Race is going to play a large part in this race,” the Democratic legislator told The Hill.
A representative for the Congressional Black Caucus did not respond to an email about whether the group intends to endorse in the primaries.
Still, for Van Hollen, there are advantages to being the establishment front-runner. He has an early money advantage, with about $1.7 million in his campaign account.
Edwards hasn’t shown a similar aptitude for fundraising, and one Democratic strategist said the cost of the primary could soar to $10 million as candidates buy ad blocks that extend for weeks in the expensive media markets of Baltimore and Washington.
“Grassroots and field operations alone can’t win this race,” the Democratic strategist said. “It’s very, very expensive to communicate here.”
That could open the door for Rep. John Delaney, who has told The Hill he’s “leaning towards” running. The two-term Democrat, one of the wealthiest members of Congress with a net worth estimated over $100 million, could self-fund a bid.
On-air candidate messaging will be crucial in drawing ideological distinctions within the field.
The liberal groups backing Edwards have already grasped on to a remark Van Hollen made during the contentious 2012 budget fight, when he reportedly said he was “willing to consider” raising the Medicare retirement age or cutting Social Security to strike a deal with the GOP.
A Van Hollen aide pushed back strongly against the groups, telling The Hill he “will continue to fight any effort to cut benefits or raise the retirement age.” But the issue is the kind of narrow opening that candidates will be looking to exploit.
“Votes and discussions that at one point didn’t look like a big deal will suddenly become a very big deal in the eyes of voters,” the Democratic strategist said. “It’s difficult in a primary where you have a lot of strong Democrats to really distinguish yourself.”
Geographically, the race looks like it could split between the city of Baltimore and the Washington suburbs. Political watchers in the state believe at least one Baltimore Democrat will enter the race.
Rep. John Sarbanes, Cummings, Brown, Ruppersberger and Rawlings-Blake will all have strong name recognition in Maryland’s largest city, while Van Hollen and Edwards will benefit from their proximity to Washington.
“The question these people have to be asking themselves is, will I ever get another opportunity?” the Democratic strategist said. “The bench is so strong here and it could be a long time before something like this opens up again. This is a serious decision.”
Kathleen Kennedy Townsend lost the Md Governor's seat to Robert Ehrlich [R] back in 2002. Ehrlich served one term then was defeated by Martin O'Malley [D].
Donna Edwards is remarkably undistinguished and far left to boot.
While I personally find Van Hollen odious, he appears to be the best of the lot.
The battle for Boxer's seat is also a white liberal against a minority. Stephen Solarz was ousted in the primary in NY once his district became mostly Hispanic. Identity politics cuts both ways for liberal white Dems.
It has to do with race, not qualifications.
I know this is a Blue State, but they did recently elect a Republican Governor by a pretty good margin. Are there and decent Republican Candidates for this seat?
And gender.
Donna Edwards is far left but she isn’t a push over and she’s very articulate.
“....On the Republican side, names of potential candidates floated for Ms. Mikulski’s seat include Rep. Andy Harris, the state’s lone GOP congressman, and former Secret Service Agent Dan Bongino, who ran and lost to Sen. Benjamin Cardin in 2012 and Mr. Delaney last year.”
The GOP actually has a good chance, IMHO, to win this race, because the Dem primary will force candidates waaaay to the left...the fact that the state just elected a GOP governor shows that even terrapins have limits..
“When I first started voting in the state, four members of our House delegation were women, and the first woman I ever voted for Senate was Barbara Mikulski,” she said last week. “We are on the verge of not having any representation of women in our state in the Senate and I think it’s pretty compelling and something that makes me think about it even more.”
Three of those women were GOP: Marjorie Holt from Anne Arundel County; Helen Delich Bentley from Baltimore County; and Constance “Connie” Morella from Montgomery County. The fourth, Beverly Byron, was a “Boll Weevil” ‘Rat from western MD who inherited her husband’s seat after he vapor locked while jogging on the C&O Canal towpath circa 1978 (the Byron family controlled the western MD district for something like 50 years). Actually, there was one other woman from MD in Congress at the time, a left wing moonbat, Gladys Noon Spellman from Prince George’s County, who took a massive stroke about a week before her last election (circa 1980), and was never able to take the oath of office (her seat was declared vacant, and former state senator Steny Hoyer won what was (as I remember) a 14-way ‘Rat primary to succeed her.
Some more MD political history (I lived in MD between 1981 and 2011): Barf Mikulski was a city councilcritter in Baltimore and led the fight against building interstate highways through the city (I-70 and the southern end of I-83 were never completed)—this ended up really hurting the development of Baltimore, so, of course, she got elected to Congress from the “white district” of Baltimore City and eastern Baltimore County in 1976 when the corrupt Edward Garmatz stepped down.
In 1986, RINO republican Sen. Charles Mathias retired (Mathias was a part of the RINO coalition that included over the years such as Jacob Javits, Clifford Case, Lowell Weicker, Charles Percy, Caleb Boggs, Robert Packwood, etc.). 1986 was a bad year for the GOP, as they had passed bad legislation such as TEFRA; they would go on to lose control of the Senate which they had held since 1981; they wouldn’t get it back until January, 1995. Linda Chavez was the GOP nominee to replace Mathias. Mikulski was up against two liberals, Stephen Sachs, the elected Attorney General of MD, and Michael Barnes, an odious creep who was then the Montgomery County representative in Congress. Mikulski won the primary with about 40% of the vote; Sachs and Barnes presumably splitting the male vote.
Thanks for the colorful rundown.
: )
We were in MD for that Kathleen Kennedy Townsend - Bob Ehrlich election - actually got to vote against a Kennedy!
Ehrlich and others got the ICC pushed through.
Back in Texas now.
“1986 was a bad year for the GOP, as they had passed bad legislation such as TEFRA”
TEFRA was passed in 1982. The Tax Reform Act (TRA) was passed in 1986.
Regarding the Byrons, William Devereux Byron first won the seat in 1938 but he died in a Georgia plane crash while in office in 1941 and his widow, Katherine (herself the granddaughter of MD Republican Senator Louis Emory McComas), filled out the seat for the remainder of the term. Republican J. Glenn Beall, Sr. took the 6th district seat in 1942 and aside from a single Dem fluke winner in 1958, would remain GOP until 1971 (producing 3 of the last 4 GOP Senators from MD, both Bealls (Sr. & Jr.) and ultraleftist Chuck Mathias).
Goodloe Byron (son of William & Katherine) won the seat when Beall, Jr. moved up to the Senate in 1971, serving until his death in 1978 (and then widow Beverly from 1979-93), so they controlled the seat for 26 out of 54 years.
Maryland “Freak State” PING!
Whatever happens, we can be sure that MD will fail again.
You’ve got a great knowledge of MD politics that I lack. I just know MD always disappoints. Even Spiro Agnew could not hold it for Nixon in 1968 (nor could Paul Ryan hold WI for Romney).
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