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To: WILLIALAL
Nowadays a reserve currency requires the backing of one of the world's large economies, with sufficient political stability that there are not abrupt changes in economic policy, and sufficient transparency that outsiders can develop reliable valuation and forecasting models. Those requirements rule out China and Europe, both of which are fraught with political instabilities. China also has dodgy economic statistics that make economic modeling a dodgy proposition.

Moreover, although China and Russia and other countries may make bilateral currency deals and gain greater use as a trade currency, they shun reserve currency status because it would be an impediment to setting their currency values to maximize their national economic output. If the renminbi were a reserve currency, China would no longer be able to use its cheap currency to boost exports and domestic employment, which are critical elements of the regime's survival strategy. Similarly, if the ruble were a reserve currency, Russia would be unable to calibrate its currency to reflect oil price fluctuations and protect its domestic economy.

The dollar will endure as the world's reserve currency, backed by international institutions, US military power, and the US willingness to backstop allied currencies and economies with dollar lending as needed. Other currencies will emerge as more or less useful as trade currencies and sometimes as stores of value, but SDRs will prove useless as hedges against general inflation or deflation.

5 posted on 03/10/2015 10:02:28 AM PDT by Rockingham
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To: Rockingham

So Obama is not characterized by abrupt and troubling changes in economic policy, and a trend away from transparency? or for that matter, military weakening?

That’s also too much faith in “international institutions”, which have been leading the march away from the dollar.


8 posted on 03/10/2015 10:17:08 AM PDT by Olog-hai
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To: Rockingham

BTW, I am sure that prior to World War II, Britons thought that the pound sterling would endure as the world’s reserve currency as well.


11 posted on 03/10/2015 10:28:18 AM PDT by Olog-hai
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