Posted on 03/01/2015 6:40:39 PM PST by thackney
The European edition of The Wall Street Journal has said in an editorial that Tesla Motors should stop accepting federal and state subsidies. “Last year Tesla made a roughly $150 million killing from selling ZEV credits. That’s up from $130 million in 2013, $32 million in 2012, and $3 million in 2011. All told in 2014 Tesla sold about $216 million in credits,” the newspaper said. It goes on to say,
Capitalism needs visionaries, but its reputation suffers when companies worth billions soak middle-class taxpayers for profits. Turn off the taxpayer tap, Mr Musk. It would earn you more friends for the long haul.
This seems a strange position for the Wall Street Journal to take. It never said a peep about the billions GM and Chrysler got after the global economic meltdown in 2008. Even though most of that money was eventually repaid, where was the Journal’s concern for the “taxpayer tap” then?
And it’s not like Musk and Tesla did anything to create these taxpayer financed schemes. The state and local governments laid out the rules and Tesla found a way to make a lot of money by playing according to those rules. The governments involved set out a lovely pie of money and said, “Oh, won’t someone come and gobble up our lovely pie?” Tesla did. Get over it. Move on.
Many stock analysts have frankly been stunned by Elon Musk’s assertions in a conference call with investors last week that Tesla would grow by 50% a year for the next 10 years and be worth as much as Apple in 20 years. Several wonder if Musk has gone off the deep end.
Gadfly Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas has written an article entitled “Tesla Pushes The ‘Insane’ Button.” He writes, “Seems Tesla is preparing to be a much larger company than we have forecasted, leaving us with nervous excitement.” Jonas says Tesla is targeting capital spending of $1.5 billion in 2015 – nearly double his expectation and up 50 per cent year to year. He says this level of spending reflects a company with ambitions to achieve sales of at least 500,000 by 2020, not the 295,000 he’d expected:
The assumptions in our earnings model seem to be at great philosophical odds with Tesla’s much more ambitious growth aspirations. When thinking about the share price development, the key question we are left with is whether investor appetite can keep up with Tesla’s growth journey and the alignment of forward looking expectations with the capital markets, a balance so important to firms at this early stage of development.
Another brokerage firm sees things differently. Evercore ISI is still positive on Tesla for the future, saying there are 6 reasons for its bullish attitude:
Less exposed to market risk than peers, as global demand will exceed supply.
Protected against industry risk because of its unique business model and vertical integration.
Market leading product with no obvious competition. Substantial brand equity, through product and innovation.
Equity certain to grow as it enters new markets and has new products.
Government CO2 rules a tailwind for it, a headwind for competition.
“The factors in Tesla’s favor are both powerful and unique to Tesla. We see merit in allocating capital to a leader in the technology of the future,” Evercore ISI analyst George Galliers says.
Elon Musk is nothing if not brash. His style and his business practices have discomforted many established leaders in the automotive marketplace. Perhaps it is no wonder that he should do so in the financial markets as well. Whether you decide to double down on Tesla stock or take your gains and get out, there is a stock analyst out there who will applaud your decision.
The one thing to keep in mind with Tesla is that the capital markets are confronted with something quite out of the ordinary here. All anyone can say with certainty is that there will be winners and losers ahead. Invest wisely.
This seems a strange position for the Wall Street Journal to take. It never said a peep about the billions GM and Chrysler got after the global economic meltdown in 2008. Even though most of that money was eventually repaid, where was the Journal's concern for the "taxpayer tap" then? And it's not like Musk and Tesla did anything to create these taxpayer financed schemes. The state and local governments laid out the rules and Tesla found a way to make a lot of money by playing according to those rules. The governments involved set out a lovely pie of money and said, "Oh, won't someone come and gobble up our lovely pie?" Tesla did.
“A typical gasoline cars gets a 12% range reduction in cold weather.”
Are you kidding me? This thread is about a 270 km range test. Your link points out that on 3-4 mile trips you get lousy mileage. Swing and a miss.
“The manual does not say that”
Really? Then exactly what is the manual saying when it states this:
“Keep the vehicle plugged in, even when fully charged, to keep the battery temperature ready for the next drive. This is important when outside temperatures are extremely hot or cold.”
“It is common knowledge among EV owners that cold weather hurts electric cars range much more than hot weather does.”
I’d love to see some real world data. It costs a ton of $$ to cool my house...ac adds a noticeable load to my car...but in an EV it has little effect? I doubt it - and remember, ac is not just a creature comfort...its a battery comfort. Anyway, I think it would be just swell if that sort of ‘common knowledge’ could be demonstrated fact before we the sheeple subsidize these schemes.
The link states a typical gasoline car gets a 12% reduction in cold weather for city driving and up to 22% reduction for 3-4 mile trips. While not exactly apples to apples, I provided this simply in response to your statement, “Last I checked, my gas car gets a 0% reduction in range in cold weather.”
“Really? Then exactly what is the manual saying when it states...”
Again, that statement you are referencing is under the section titled: “Driving for Better Energy Efficiency — Use the following tips to help maximize energy efficiency and range.”
These are tips for increasing efficiency, not requirements. Your original statement could have given people the impression that their Volt battery might be in danger if they did not leave it plugged in while in the sun. You said, “I know for example that a Volt owner manual states not to leave the car out in the sun without being plugged in....energy is needed to cool the batteries.”
The reality is that the battery keeps itself cool in the sun whether or not you plug it in, it just drains the battery a little in order to do it if you are not plugged in. The only concern is not leaving it out in the sun for long term storage. Now that that is cleared up, moving on.
“Anyway, I think it would be just swell if that sort of ‘common knowledge’ could be demonstrated fact before we the sheeple subsidize these schemes.”
From a USA Today article from last year:
AAA conducted a simulation to measure the driving range of three fully-electric vehicles – a 2013 Nissan Leaf, a 2012 Mitsubishi iMIEV and a 2014 Ford Focus Electric Vehicle – in cold, moderate and hot weather.
...
The average electric vehicle battery range for each full charge in AAA’s test was 105 miles at 75 degrees Fahrenheit. That dropped 57% to 43 miles when the temperature was held steady at 20 degrees. Warm temperatures were not as stressful but still delivered a lower average of 69 miles per full charge at 95 degrees, AAA said.
The 2013 Nissan Leaf, 2012 Mitsubishi iMIEV, and 2014 Ford Focus EV have EPA rated ranges of 75 miles, 62 miles, and 76 miles, respectively. This averages out to 71 miles. So in short, using the maximum rated range that AAA found under optimal temperatures as a baseline (75 deg F), the EPA rated range is 32% below max, cold weather is 57% below max, and warm weather was 34% below max (or 3% below EPA rating).
I hope you understand how the cold weather mileage statement is propaganda. It is predicated on an un-garaged car, with poorly managed tire pressure and an absolute need to use seat heaters...and a need to drive only 3-4 miles. Its a stat massaged the way only government can (its a dotgov site). Perhaps its not 0%, because for around 45 seconds some of the sensors are in closed loop mode...but its very close to zero. Think about it - does your car get noticeably worse mileage in cold weather - you know, in the real world? Odds are it doesn’t. My office mate has kept ridiculously precise records on his car’s mileage for three years now...uses the same pump every time...records mileage and gas bought every time. No noticeable reduction of mileage in the winter - and his car isn’t even garaged.
Now lets look at the Volt. I’m not sure why it matters what section my manual quote comes from. Does the heading of the section change the meaning of the instructions?
I stated:
“I know for example that a Volt owner manual states not to leave the car out in the sun without being plugged in....energy is needed to cool the batteries.”
And you argued with it. So I found the exact language from the manual that states the same thing....and all you care about is the heading of the section?
Beyond that, I think you mis-understand the Volt’s “High Voltage Battery Cooling/Heating System”...and you presume it kicks on with the car off, and not plugged in to a charger. This is a contradiction to GM’s website, which states it “can be activated when the vehicle is “On” and if necessary during charging operations”. http://gm-volt.com/2010/12/09/the-chevrolet-volt-coolingheating-systems-explained/
IOW, if you don’t want to damage a battery by drawing current from it when too hot - do as the manual says and plug it in while in direct sunlight. Do you believe that now?
As far as the USA Today article is concerned - 95 degrees in southern California is NOT hot weather. I know my car can get around just fine in 110+ degree weather, because it has to do just that every year. These studies do absolutely nothing to indicate whether or not an EV could, without severe range degradation and/or battery damage. Very typical for an EV ‘test’...avoiding a scenario that even approaches worst case.
LogicDesigner’s posts are very reminiscent of Willie Green. Ever try talking to him about trains ?
BTW, Houston’s Toy Train killed another lady yesterday.
I think I ran acoss Willie once. Should pay for his own choo choos.
Oh wow...I just noticed that LogicDesigner’s only interest on this board is electric cars.
Did Willie get a new hobby?
It does seem that LogicDesigner crawled away when he was proven wrong.
The website you mention, gm-volt.com, is not run by GM but is actually a fan-run site. They could still be correct, and if so I would be wrong about the battery cooling system coming on when unplugged. Here is what they say in one place:
What happens if the Volt is parked in the hot sun with ignition (power) off and NOT plugged in? This would be the scenario for many Arizona workers that park their cars in full sun on a black asphalt parking lot all day. How hot will the Volt’s battery get?
In order to determine, Volt was parked for a day in full sun. Results of this test are presented in figure 5. We see that the Volt’s battery is extremely well insulated. With cabin temperatures soaring to 115 F and ambient air temperatures going to 99 F the Volts battery only reached a maximum temperature of 90 F. Roughly equal to the upper limit during active thermal management during charging shown in figure 2 . We also note that there is NO ACTION taken by the TMS in this case.
Though elsewhere on the website people say that it will come on when unplugged if you have at least a certain amount of battery charge.
Regardless, that does not mean the manual says that you need to keep it plugged in when it is out in the sun. For the umpteenth time, it suggests it as a way to increase efficiency, not as something that is needed to prevent battery damage. (As the gm-volt.com post I quoted above indicates, even in 115 °F weather, the battery pack did not get over 90 °F.) Since you repeatedly conflate the text to say what you want it to say, and since you are invulnerable to correction, I'm not going to beat this dead horse any further. You can argue with thin air from here on out.
Regarding Willie Green, I had to look him up to see what you were talking about. I'm not too impressed with passenger trains myself. They are one of those things that sound good in theory but oftentimes don't work in the real world.
EDIT: The test was 99 °F weather, not 115 °F weather, but the overall point remains. The manual says what the manual says, not what you want it to say.
1. Welcome back (how was it over at DU...I kid...I kid...maybe)
2. We’re going to have to disagree with cold weather driving...but I will ask again: Do you REALLY believe that you get 12% worse mileage in cold weather? In your entire lifetime, have you ever noticed that in your personal experience? I doubt it - so why would you repeat such a silly stat? Because the government said it, it must be true?
3. Ok, lets play along with the charade that the astro turf ‘grass roots’ GM site isn’t affiliated with GM. Lets look at the one day test in 99 degree heat. It got to 90 in the battery compartment...which according to the link is the top end of battery temperature. What on earth do you think would happen, if, I dunno...it was 110 degrees? Gee - do you think the battery would get even hotter than 90 degrees? IOW, a test in 99 degree heat is phenomenally un-informative in a world where temperatures routinely hit 110 degrees. Why even do the test? Look at your link - they did the test in APRIL! More specifically April 28, 2013. Well golly gee, what if I parked my car in Phoenix in one of them there hot months. Just two months later, in Phoenix, it was 119 degrees on June 29th. Do you understand how stupid it is to do a heat test in April?!?!? And then to use the results to prove a point - either dumb or devious.
And what would happen if I left the Volt out in the sun for a week in an airport parking lot. In Phoenix, in June/July 2013 it never got below 90 degrees for 4 straight days. So how about this: Would you be willing to plunk down $45k of your own money...and park your Volt for a week at the airport during the hot summer? Would YOU be willing to risk it? Or am I right?
3. The notion that the Volt will ‘come on’ to cool the battery has a qualifying statement “If it has at least a certain amount of battery charge”. IOW, the person who made that statement knows that the battery would eventually ‘brick’ itself if it did this. Once again, how do you think that works out when you leave the car at the airport? The whole crux of the problem is that you CAN NOT leave this thing out in the sun, without expending energy to cool it (per my original and hotly contested statement). So, if you run out of energy, its over - and you HAVE TO BE PLUGGED IN to prevent the battery from running out of energy. BTW, in your link to the high stress APRIL heat test, it was noted that nothing came on, even when the battery was hot.
4. This is not about efficiency. And quite frankly, although you keep protesting, you know better. You know exactly what will happen if the battery is discharged even once when too hot - permanent reduction in battery range. Why keep pretending otherwise.
I’m not sure why I bother - you’re obviously an electric car fanatic...and don’t really seem to have any other purpose on this board.
I know your type. The other day there was a Volt in front of me (owned by the power company - I’ve never seen a privately owned Volt in my life). The driver turned on his washer fluid/wipers and it all went to crap. Fluid was spraying over the roof of the car and the wiper ended up dangling to the side of the car. He had to pull over. All I could think of is people like you - if you had seen that piece of junk just strip out its wiper gear, you would defend it. You would find some study that says the Volt has the strongest wiper gear ever made, and declare that it would never break...even when it happened right in front of your eyes. BTW, what a heap of junk...I smiled and waved as I drove by.
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