Posted on 02/26/2015 3:04:49 PM PST by Jack Hydrazine
We have a bit of a problem in the weather world.
It's a good problem, and it has kept death and destruction to a relative minimum: In the last three years, there have never been fewer tornadoes in the United States since record-keeping began in 1950.
According to Dr. Greg Forbes, severe weather expert at The Weather Channel, there have been 838 tornadoes spawned in 2014 through Dec. 15. That still seems like a boatload of twisters, and it is, but when that number is visualized with averages, it tells a bigger story of the 2014 Tornado Shortage. Keep in mind that Forbes' numbers differ slightly from the SPC, but both have the year's tornado count well below the record low.
Think back to 2011 – the year of a Superoutbreak, as well as the human and economic disaster that came with the Joplin, Missouri, EF5 tornado. That year, 1,691 tornadoes were spawned, according to Forbes, and discussions ramped up that we were dealing with a "new normal." Some experts worried that violent tornadoes would continue to escalate in number and intensity.
In the three years since then, the United States hasn't seen a tornado count above 1,000 in any single year. We're able to report more tornadoes than ever due to technology advancements and an increase in spotters, yet the numbers have remained lower than average over the last 36 months.
As for 2014, there are a few meteorological explanations for the shortage, says Jon Erdman, weather.com senior meteorologist.
"In general, the dominance of a bulge of high pressure aloft in the West thwarted the typical setup for severe thunderstorms in the Plains states this spring," Erdman said. "Also, the lack of landfalling tropical cyclones near the U.S. this hurricane season took a substantial number of tornadoes off the board in summer and fall."
So far this year, only two months have seen above-average tornado counts – June with 280 and October with 69 – according to Forbes' data. The months that usually see the highest tornado totals – April and May – were below-average. And with only a couple dozen tornadoes spawned in an average December, it's not likely that the 2014 overall total will surge before the year ends.
If we see an average December, the tornado count for the year will remain well below 1,000. Since 1990, there have only been three years where less than 1,000 tornadoes were spawned, and two of those years were 2012 and 2013. From 1950 to 1989, there were only two years with more than 1,000 confirmed twisters, but many smaller tornadoes went unspotted in those decades.
There are a lot of benefits to a less tornadic year, but even relatively quiet years can be deadly. "Less active" doesn't necessarily mean "fewer violent tornadoes spawned," and there can be many deaths in a below-average season. But in 2014, there have also been fewer strong twisters: Only 348 EF1 or stronger tornadoes have been spawned, the third-lowest total since records began, USA Today says.
This year, there have been 42 confirmed tornado deaths, according to NOAA, which is well below the 553 deaths that occurred in the active 2011 season. It's also fewer than the 2013 and 2012 seasons, which had 55 and 70 deaths, respectively.
One area that has contributed to the shortage is the Southern Plains, where far fewer tornado watches and warnings have been issued than usual. But most of Dixie Alley in the Deep South also lagged behind when the ingredients for severe weather outbreaks in the spring months didn't materialize to the usual magnitude.
And as for the connection between climate change and stronger, more frequent tornadoes, the science still isn't as definitive as with other types of weather events, like heat waves and drought, says Carl Parker, storm specialist at The Weather Channel.
"Climate attribution is particularly difficult in the case of tornadoes, and while an increase in low-level heat and moisture content could conceivably magnify outbreaks, it's also possible that we'll have less of other critical requirements, including wind shear and cold air aloft," he said.
The last post that I could find on FR that related to this was
March 2014 Tornado Drought May Set Record
by the Weather Channel
22MAR2014
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3136308/posts
“And as for the connection between climate change and stronger, more frequent tornadoes, the science still isn’t as definitive as with other types of weather events, like heat waves and drought, says Carl Parker, storm specialist at The Weather Channel.”
In summary, our Climate Change (Global Warming) Models were 100% wrong but that shouldn’t lessen your belief in those same models for drought or other disasters prediction.
...Definitely Anthropogenic Global Climate Change. In fact, Al Gore is in the midwest this weekend...he must be...because we just received one of the biggest snow storms (with lowest temperatures) of the year!
Is there any correlation with any climatic trends (e.g., el Nino) or is it purely the luck of the draw?
Violent Tornadoes Are On The Decline In The US
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/10/31/violent-tornadoes-are-on-the-decline-in-the-us/
2014 on track for record low tornado total for Oklahoma
12DEC2014
http://www.koco.com/weather/2014-on-track-for-record-low-tornado-total-for-oklahoma/30209542
(Average annual tornado count is in the 50s)
So far this year, the preliminary tornado count for Oklahoma City is only 15 tornadoes. If there are no more tornadoes this month, 2014 will go in the record books as the quietest tornado year on record for Oklahoma.
The prior record was only 17 tornadoes in 1988. Click here for a closer look at the 2014 tornado count across Oklahoma.
The chance of having tornadoes in December is not zero, but it very low. On average, Oklahoma averages only .4 tornadoes each December.
On average, there are 56 tornadoes a year across Oklahoma. Click here for a closer look at annual tornado totals for Oklahoma from 1950 to the present.
Are Tornadoes Getting Stronger? Rebuttal to Elsner et al.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/14/are-tornadoes-getting-stronger-rebuttal-to-elsner-et-al/
Ja, I know!
As a point of information, this low count comes along with an increased ability that allows us to detect just about ALL tornados in the continental US. If the “missed tornados” were somehow included in the historical counts, the current VERY low count could be even more impressive in comparison.
Tornado Intensity Index declining!
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/25/u-s-tornado-intensity-index-shows-no-upward-trend/
Due to Global Warming, er, Climate Change, 2015 will have more tornados then ever before! Scream, throw your hands in the air and run like Hell!*
*Pay your carbon taxes FIRST!
Former Vice President Al Gore lamented today that scientists “will not let us link record-breaking” tornadoes in Oklahoma and elsewhere to climate change because of inadequate record keeping on the twisters.
“But when you put more energy into a system, it gets more energetic,” Gore said at an environmental event in Washington hosted by Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse.
Politico
June 11, 2013
That right there disproves GlowBull Warming...
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.