Here’s the problem... they’re both a little right. Gold will go lower. Why? Simply because it has priced in the end of the monetary system. People hoarded gold expecting the end of the world (since 2003). The problem is that gold will be worth what everything else is worth in that scenario. In a real, global crisis, gold will not have the demand it has now. It will be worth a sandwich to most people because someone who has a pile of gold in his living room will quickly come to the place where he will gladly trade with his neighbor for a sandwich. If you truly expect the end of the economic system buy a farm... have a food source, a water source, fuel and shelter... and ammunition to defend it all. Failing that... gold isn’t your savior. Like everything else, the price of gold depends on supply and demand.
However, gold does have intrinsic industrial and wealth-preservation value. Although the value should fall from current levels, I don’t think it will go south of $700/oz.
How about since the 1800's....
If our economy experiences moderate to heavy deflation, the price of gold will be the one of the smaller problems in life. Seriously, if gold were to fall to $300-400 per ounce due to deflation, all bets are off when it comes to your job, your ability to pay your mortgage, and the health of the the financial system world wide.