Posted on 02/19/2015 2:43:10 PM PST by blam
February 18, 2015
Jeff_Clark
Some of you may be aware that investment guru Harry Dent has publicly stated that gold will fall to $250-$400. He specifically predicted:
Around $700/ounce is a certainty in gold by 2015 to 2016, and $250 is a possibility well down the line by 2020–2023.
His forecast is largely based on his belief that deflation will prevail.
Governments are fighting deflation. If government stimulus fails, we will have deflation, not inflation.
(snip)
As a gold analyst who’s spent every day of the last seven-plus years watching this market, I can’t let this pass. I’m sure gold will not fall to $700, much less $250-$400—not in real terms (who knows if the US dollar will even exist in 2020?… Or maybe there will be new dollars with several zeros cut off).
Is this just because I’m a stubborn gold bug? No, because I agree that we’re seeing some deflation, too. But I definitely think some type of crisis is headed our way, and gold does well in crises—even deflationary ones.
Is it perhaps because I don’t like Mr. Dent? Not at all—at my suggestion, he was a speaker at one of our Summits.
Quite simply, I think Harry Dent is resoundingly wrong. And I’m so sure he’s wrong that this is a public invitation to him to enter a wager with me and put his money where his mouth is, which I’ll detail momentarily.
Why Harry Dent Is Wrong
There are a number of reasons why I think Mr. Dent will be wrong about the future gold price…
(snip)
(Excerpt) Read more at marketoracle.co.uk ...
The thing that is going to jump up between now and then (”a funny thing happened on the way to $250”): people all over the world, all of a sudden, all at once, cease to believe in the value of the $whatevercurrency. It happens almost overnight.
t has no practical use in a collapsed economy so the value goes way down when that does happen. I’ve read accounts in such situations (including by my grandmother) that people were trading 1/10oz gold coins for a single crappy meal. Before the war, such a coin was worth a monthly salary.
But you forgot to explain why that person used a gold coin to buy a meal.
I am trying to live long enough to see a Harry Dent prediction come true
because he didn’t have any silver coins that would have bought that same meal?
“But you forgot to explain why that person used a gold coin to buy a meal.”
Because they were about to die from hunger and had nothing else except for the rags on their back.
Yes, gold is always worth *something* but it is far too expensive to buy during a working economy for a SHTF situation. In my grandmother’s case, people would have invested a monthly salary in gold for 1 future meal when SHTF. Not practical.
You’re infinitely better off buying a bunker full of stable supplies than the equivalent in gold. Consumables also rise in value with inflation, can be easily sold AND they INCREASE in value when SHTF.
” I will stop drinking Scotch for an entire year “
Good...then it should become cheaper for me!
There is a good reason why the word “fools” is often associated with the word “gold.” Gold is not an investment. It is a hedge against nothing. Gold, by itself, does not produce dividends or income, and if not for demand resulting from conservative talk radio and other marketing BS, industrial and commercial demand is below supply.
How about since the 1800's....
Yup!
If so I am hoarding as much as I can get my hands on.
The 1800s were a century of boom and bust. About every 10 years we went from expansion to not just recession but full-blown depression. Debts were destroyed and life moved forward again. It was actually a pretty miserable economy for most. Most Americans simply subsisted from one crisis to the next.
Although I’m not a fan of the Federal Reserve system, there was a certain logic to it. America’s wealth isn’t in the gold our government can stash in a vault. It’s in the accumulated wealth of each American and the government’s printed currency is backed by the taxes collected based on economic activity. This is a much better representation of the strength of our economy and, therefore, our monetary system. Obviously, the Federal Reserve system isn’t without its proven flaws but the Congress is still Constitutionally the master of our currency.
Don’t get me started on the Progressive Amendments, I’m not in favor of that sort of taxation... the Feds should tax the States and the States should tax their citizens. All politics should be local where the locals have greatest control.
Goldbug ping.
Gold and Silver usually rise and fall together.
We have junk silver and I would encourage everyone to have some. When our fiat currency fails silver will be the fall back coinage for everyday use like buying food etc. Gold will be for large purchases.
How much is Junk Silver?
No worries....I see you didn’t understand my reply.
Deflation, inflation, is a meaningless term.
Because what happens is worse: you have deflation of assets like homes but inflation of needed products like oil and food.
About $13 per $1 of face value. 10 dimes $13, 4 quarters $13 etc. etc.
I see thank you.
Agreed.
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