Posted on 02/13/2015 3:45:51 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
This column is so easy to pick apart, it's amazing that the Washington Post actually published it.
This is by far the strangest column Ive read on Senator Ted Cruzs potential he hasnt even announced yet candidacy. Its written by Jennifer Rubin, who basically argues that Cruz is unpopular because hes too extreme. He behaves, she writes, like an angry young man, and is not presidential at all.
The evidence she uses? Hes only polling at 5%, she says, at RealClearPolitics.
OK, so lets look at RCPs poll of polls. And what do we see?
Jeb Bush is supposedly leading the pack which makes me laugh, honestly: the guy is as unpopular among the conservative base as a Republican could possibly be. Hes followed by Christie (9.4%), Huckabee (9%), Paul (8.6%), Carson (8.4%), Walker (5.8%) and Cruz (5.2%). Behind Cruz there are people like the new darling of the establishment, Marco Rubio (4.6%), Rick Perry (4.2%), and Bobby Jindal (2.8%).
Whats most remarkable about this is that Bush, Christie and Huckabee all have problems with the conservative constitutionalist base. Bush and Christie are seen as too moderate (or even downright progressive), whereas the only conservative part of Huckabee is his social conservatism. His record as Arkansas governor made Bill Clinton look conservative in comparison.
Sooner or later the base will turn against these three individuals. They may do fairly well right now, but some if not all of them will be ferociously attacked by conservative activists. Thats going to hurt their poll numbers going forward.
Secondly, although Bush doesnt have national experience as such, he is a former presidents brother and another former presidents son. Hes known very well known and has a national network to work with. The same can be said for Huckabee (after all, he already ran for president twice) and Rand Paul (who simply took over his fathers network). Cruz doesnt have that network yet, but has begun building it. Once that gains traction, hell almost certainly rise in the polls.
Thirdly, although Cruz is chastised by Rubin for being too unpopular to win the nomination because he only polls at 5%, why is it that Scott Walker is considered one of the frontrunners, while he polls 5% as well? The difference between him and Cruz is 0.6%, which is easily within the margin of error.
Fourthly and most hilariously of all, Rubin writes that Cruz will probably have to follow in Rick Perrys footsteps. Perry learned, she explains, to communicate his message in a slightly different (read: less polarizing and downright conservative) manner and that supposedly helped him. I quote:
Maybe the best thing for Cruz would be to run. There is nothing like the verdict of voters in those early states to sober up a politician. Losing is one thing; losing in embarrassing fashion is quite another. Perhaps like Rick Perry he needs that sort of humbling experience to redirect his focus and his approach to politics. If so, that would be to his and Republicans benefit.
If that helped Perry, as Rubin argues, how can she explain that hes only polling at 4.2%, a full percentage lower than Cruz? Hes doing worse than Ted, Jennifer, and that while he actually ran for president once and, therefore, has somewhat of a national organization!
“Progressives, on the other hand, dont need the Constitution because theyre brilliant, intellectual, really-really smart intellectual geniuses”
Intellectuals AREN’T.
” Shes a Hollywood hack lawyer who went to C-List schools whereas Ted Cruz is a top-flight Supreme Court-level constitutional lawyer who not only went to A-List schools but graduated with highest honors. “
A Joe Biden type law grad : )
No wonder I never heard of her.
U. Cal Berkeley (she’s a grad) is a top 10 rated law school on the 5 different lists I checked.
Not that I’m recommending it.
(some folks here are just in love with the Ivy League)
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