A Darkening Market Sky [Maybe; Investment & Finance Thread Feb. 1]

Weekly investment & finance thread ^ | January 30, 2015 | Freeper Investors

[expat_panama]

understood.

My thinking is that as an individual it's safe to assume (for interview purposes) to talk like you know the economy will get better and you know rates will go up, but it's the exact "when" or the exact % rate hike amount that tends to make even governors look down 'n mumble. Meanwhile the official fed press release has to stoop to 'greenspan talk'...

[abb]

"What in the wide wide world of sports is a goin' on here!?!?"

Oil's gone crazy the past few days!!!

[expat_panama]

Blazing Saddles —complete with Apaches that spoke Yiddish...

[expat_panama]

	Markets		Past Trades		Ahead
	metals		Solid on new base, currently @ $1,265.20 and $17.40		trending up w/ futures +0.11
	stocks		NASDAQ and S&P500 punching back up over the 50-day MA in higher volume		mixed/off, overall -0.06%

News:

• No Wonder Investors Are Tuning Out the Fed - Caroline Baum, E21.com
• O's Budget Would Put a 67% Tax Rate on Economy - Jeff Dorfman, Forbes
• Barack Obama's Assault On Capital - Jeremy Warner, The Telegraph
• House Votes to Fully Repeal Obamacare, 239-186

Threads:

• Huff Post Panics Over "Anti-American" Profits
• GALLUP: "The Big Lie: 5.6% Unemployment"
• Manufacturing drops 3.4% in December, global demand falling
• Moribund RadioShack prepares to pull plug; NYSE suspends trading

[abb]

The “experts” are saying the oil bump is the classic “dead cat bounce.”

Who knows?

But I still have some dry powder in case another buying opportunity presents itself.

[expat_panama]

“experts” are saying the oil bump is the classic “dead cat bounce.”

That's what it looks like for price, but a 'DCB' usually shows less volume on the upside than it did before and since I only got price here I can't say.  Regardless, while a DCB usually points the way down I've seen more than a few times it led into a bigtime rally...

[expat_panama]

Yesterday we got the Crude Inventories report for Jan. and it showed another big increase.   Problem is that trends in prices and inventories can mean anything we want for the next year or two because the industry takes so long to react --we can't just drill a new well overnight any more than we can quickly get a new job closer to home to use less gas.

So like the first half of 2014 inventories went up and down while the price of oil just went up, and then inventories went up down and up in the other half of 2014 while the price plunged.    What I'm getting is that meaningful price trends in oil take decades to set in, and month/year timeframes are just noise static.

[expat_panama]

Happy "Claims" day to everyone!   This morning (any minute now):

Initial Claims
Continuing Claims
Trade Balance
Productivity-Prel
Unit Labor Costs
Natural Gas Inventories

--and this on top of futures trades pointing +0.6% for stock indexes and metals off -0.81.  Lotsa juicy news blurbs:

• Greece plays down ECB move on cash line for its banks Jittery investors dumped Greek shares after the ECB tightened the screws on the country's banking system, piling pressure on the new anti-austerity government.

• This Is the Sexiest Financial Habit A new survey asked people what money management traits they'd find attractive in a mate. Prepare to be surprised by the answer. Money

• Oil crashes after four-day rally; U.S. inventory renews glut worry Oil prices crashed on Wednesday, with U.S. crude losing 9 percent in one of its biggest daily routs ever, as record high oil inventories in the United States cut short a four-day rally. Reuters

[Wyatt's Torch]

Out from under my earnings call rock... What did I miss?

[Lurkina.n.Learnin]

Look for security stocks to rally today

Massive Data Breach At Health Insurer Anthem Reveals Social Security Numbers And More

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3254289/posts

[expat_panama]

... What did I miss?

lot's of big changes --back and forth and all ending up about the same place as where you left off...

[expat_panama]

...Data Breach At Health Insurer...

My biggest fear is that my private records could end up in the hands of IRS auditors and vindictive Democrat party hacks.  No wait, that's already happening...

[Lurkina.n.Learnin]

Obama said electronic health records would save buccoo bucks. Seems like we’ll spend all on getting all of the identity theft straightened out.

[abb]

Now what!?!?!?!?! I thought we was all ‘experts!!’

(Who is “we,” paleface?)

LOL!!

[Lurkina.n.Learnin]

I didn’t even stay at a Holiday Inn.

[abb]

LOL! If we “KNEW,” we would all be on our gret big ol’ yachts down in the Caribbean right about now.

[1010RD]

Look what a judge did to the very private information of Prop 8 donors. Then the Left went after them big time. We need to hold the Congress and move the country back toward the Constitution.

I like Mike Lee for a lot of this.

[expat_panama]

A very happy morning to you, a great way to wrap up the week!  Metals (+0.10%), bonds (+0.04%), and stock indexes (+0.02%) are all solid with both this morning's futures and yesterday's performance.  Even the price of oil continues clawing its way back up and right now energy futures are +1.88%.

[expat_panama]

...very private information of Prop 8 donors. Then the Left went after them...

It's always been that way, the lefts can steal or illegally tap concervatives (Pentagon Papers, Gingrich celphone tapes) but publically released emails from the global warmers are suddenly called 'private'.

[expat_panama]

...If we “KNEW,” we would all...

Thing is that there really are signs that can warn us.  I just read "Why Were We So Surprised? - Jeremy Grantham/Ben Inker, GMO Quarterly", they showed--

--that for years the trend of shale oil production had been overwhelming and obvious.